When you’re trying to win the Premier League title, every week is bigger and more important than the one before it. However, for Liverpool this next seven days could prove very challenging indeed.
The Reds haven’t had to play after Manchester City since the middle of December. The champions beat Everton 3-1 on Saturday 15th December, before Liverpool responded with a 3-1 win of their own, over Manchester United, the following day.
The six match weeks since have seen Jürgen Klopp’s side go first four times, kick off at the same time as City once, and also play them at the Etihad. In the next week, Liverpool have to follow Pep Guardiola’s team twice, which will bring added pressure.
Or at least it will if City win both matches. While Arsenal will present a stern test on Sunday, it would be a surprise if the Citizens didn’t win at Newcastle on Tuesday night – as their price of 2/9 with BetHard to do so reflects – so it’s highly likely the Reds will kick off against Leicester just one point clear at the top of the table.
Fortunately for Klopp and his team, Liverpool have a very good record against the Foxes at Anfield. Leicester’s last win there came in May 2000, and they’ve lost six of the seven Merseyside meetings since. Indeed, one of their three defeats in their remarkable title winning campaign of 2015/16 occurred at Liverpool.
Hosts Fancied To Prevail
The Reds may be in the middle of a remarkable title charge of their own – though nothing could ever match Leicester’s unlikely triumph – and the bookmakers strongly fancy them to take the three points here.
Liverpool are available at 4/19 with Karamba, who have Leicester priced at 11/1 with the draw at 5/1.
Is there any value in betting on an away win or draw? After all, Claude Puel’s team have the sixth best away record in the top flight, and have recently won at both Chelsea and Everton. No club in the bottom 14 can top their tally of two league wins against ‘big six’ sides in 2018/19 either.
They're pretty much all big weeks for Liverpool at the moment, but next week is massive. Haven't played after City in the last six matchweeks, but will do so twice within a week. pic.twitter.com/gf3vPHHgA9— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) January 25, 2019
Stranger things have happened, but on the underlying statistics Leicester were lucky to win both of those games – especially at Chelsea – so although there will be pressure on Liverpool, they should have enough to come out on top.
Both of these teams may have featured in 4-3 thrillers in their last outings, but logic dictates this should be a far lower scoring affair. Only two teams in the division have played fewer games which featured at least three goals than Leicester have this season. It is therefore ironic that one of them is Wolves, who beat the Foxes by the odd goal in seven last time out.
Equally, Liverpool’s last four league games have all paid out on over 2.5 goals, and their previously impervious defence is now starting to regress towards their underlying numbers in terms of goals conceded. Bet-at-home.com, one of the best new bookmakers, have over 2.5 goals priced at around 1/2, which looks the right punt in the total goals market.
Back Both Teams To Score
The form book suggests a ‘yes’ bet is the correct option in the both teams to score market. The sides have each netted in the last five Premier League meetings, plus in four of the last five at Anfield. Liverpool have only kept one clean sheet in their last four matches on home turf, while Leicester have drawn a blank just once on the road in the league in 2018/19. A bet on both teams to score is available at 21/20 with Mansion Bet.
For goal scorers, how can you look past Mohamed Salah? His record at Anfield is simply stunning: 39 goals in 42 appearances. In his 22 Premier League home games against sides from below the big six, Salah has scored 22 goals, including a brace in this fixture last season. He is 23/10 with Unibet to open the scoring – as he has done nine times already this season – or just 6/11 to net at any time.
Slightly better odds are available on Roberto Firmino, who has scored five goals across his last four starts. He’s yet to score an opening league goal this season, so I’d take Unibet’s 22/19 for him to bag one at some point rather than getting the first one.
Only six players have scored away league goals for Leicester in this campaign, and only four in the whole division have more on the road than Jamie Vardy. He’s 7/2 in the anytime scorer market with Unibet, and it’s hard to make a case for any other Fox pouncing in the Liverpool box on Wednesday.