Lanzarote Hurdle Trends
The Lanzarote Hurdle trends have changed in the past five years, with a higher class of horse tending to win Kempton's £45,000 2m5f handicap. Three of the last 5 winners have carried more than 11st to victory, two carrying topweight that was alleviated by a conditional jockeys' claim.
Lanzarote Hurdle Trends For Last 10 Runnings
- 10/10 had run no more than 3 times in the same season
- 10/10 had run between 3-8 times over hurdles
- 9/10 had 2 wins over hurdles
- 9/10 were aged between 6-8
- 7/10 had run over at least 2m4f, 5 of those 7 had won over at least 2m4f
- 6/10 were rated more than 136
- 6/10 had run in a handicap, 3 of those 6 also winning
- 5/10 had finished in the first two last time out
The most important Lanzarote Hurdle trends though relate to previous form, with all 10 winners having run no more than three times that season, accumulating two hurdle wins in their prior careers, from three to eight outings.
Were Kloud Gate rated 10lbs higher, the 4/1 favourite would tick every box on trends, soft-ground performer Better Getalong and the Nicky Henderson hope Pacific De Baune not far behind, with recent Leicester winner Cotswold Way also shortlisted.
Is There Another Bet?
Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have won five of the last 10 Lanzarote Hurdles. Four of those five were rated 140 or more and carried 11st or more to victory. Interestingly, Henderson's two had both run just once without winning that season, and they had never run in a handicap before.
Most closely fitting that profile this time is Doux Pretender (10/1 Unibet), a French-bred six-year-old who has won two novice hurdles from 2m3f-2m5.5f this term, beaten only when stepped up to 3m in Grade 2 company.
Dropped back in trip, Doux Pretender looks the best bet of the novices, though it's also worth considering Erick Le Rouge (8/1 Black Type). Trainer Nick Williams has won three of the last 10 runnings, and this steed is trained by his wife Jane.
The negative is that with three wins from three runs this term, the latest by just 3/4 of a length, he could well be in the grip of the handicapper already.
What About A Longshot?
Trainer Dan Skelton has had seven winners in the last 14 days and two placed horses in the Lanzarote Hurdle from three runners. Solomon Grey (20/1 Bet365) is charged with bettering that score this year, after winning his handicap debut at Market Rasen.
Bred to stay, the seven-year-old is lightly-raced for his age, and thus unexposed with the advantage of maturity over others around his rating of 131, which is only 1lb higher than when he won in February last year.
The question mark is the distance, but it's in his pedigree to want this trip and he's always been ridden to exploit stamina in the shorter races he's contested.
When you consider he finished second and third to If The Cap Fits, who has climbed to a rating of 155 in four run since they met, Solomon Grey's 131 from two runs, including a win, does look quite generous.