Latest Premier League Betting Trends: Comebacks Common in Top Flight

It promises to be an exciting climax to the 29th Premier League season, which has produced the most wins for a team who has conceded the opening goal since the 2012/13 campaign.

Latest Premier League Betting Trends: Comebacks Common in Top Flight

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With three teams appearing in this season's two European finals, it's fair to say that English football is the cream of the continent.

Manchester United can win the Europa League if they beat Villarreal next Wednesday, while three days later, Chelsea and Manchester City meet in the final of the Champions League in Portugal.

English sides have dominated European finals in the last three seasons with seven of the 12 representatives coming from the Premier League.

Two La Liga sides have reached the deciders in that period while the Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 have sent one team each to the finals.

One of the appeals of the Premier League is the competitiveness throughout the competition.

When Manchester City went 2-0 up at Brighton on Tuesday night, the smart money would have been on the champions to see the win through, even though they played the final 80 minutes with 10 men.

But Graham Potter's side rallied in the second half and despite having nothing to play for only pride, the Seagulls won 3-2 to maintain a remarkable recent run of comebacks in the Premier League.


Wins After Conceding the First Goal (last 28 games):

  • 10 - Premier League
  • 4 - Ligue 1
  • 3 - Bundesliga
  • 3 - La Liga
  • 0 - Serie A

It was one of 10 wins in the last 28 matches in which a team has won after conceding the first goal.

That trend continued on Wednesday night when Aston Villa and West Ham both claimed maximum points from their trips to Tottenham and West Brom respectively after going 1-0 down.

Those 10 wins are six more than Ligue 1 over the same number of games, while the Bundesliga and La Liga have each seen three comeback wins.

In Italy, no team in the last 28 Serie A matches has won after conceding the opening goal.

In Europe's top five leagues, the Premier League has the most wins by teams conceding the first goal this season with 55.


Percentage of Wins After Conceding the First Goal This Season

  • 14.9% - Premier League
  • 11.4% - Bundesliga
  • 10.8% - Ligue 1
  • 10.0% - Serie A
  • 9.4% - La Liga

Fulham are the only team this season yet to win after giving up the first goal, but they can change that in Sunday's season finale against Newcastle at Craven Cottage before they return to the Championship.

Four teams in the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga are without a win after giving up the opening goal while Nimes and Bordeaux are the only sides yet to win after going a goal down in Ligue 1.

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Newcastle's single-season record of 10 comeback wins is in danger of being broken by Manchester United, who reached double figures when they came from a goal down to beat Aston Villa on May 9.

All 10 of United's comeback wins have come after allowing their opponents to score first, which is one more than Newcastle in their 2001/02 campaign.

Nine of United's 10 wins, after going a goal down, have come away from home and this weekend the Red Devils end their season at Wolves.


Most PL Wins This Season After Conceding the First Goal:

  • 10 - Manchester United
  • 6 - Liverpool
  • 5 - Leicester

United are guaranteed second spot after Leicester's loss at Chelsea on Tuesday night. While Wolves cannot finish any higher than 12th, they could finish the season as low as 15th.

United are 9/1 with William Hill to win this game from a losing position while the home side, who have won four games this season after conceding the first goal, are 10/1 to win from a losing position.

On the final day of last season, Southampton and Liverpool both came from a goal down to beat Sheffield United and Newcastle respectively as the final 10 matches produced a total of 33 goals.

This exciting final weekend of the season should see the comeback wins trend continue, especially if the seven sides involved in European permutations fall behind early in their matches, leaving them no option but to go on the front foot.


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