Cazoo Oaks Trends
- 12 of the last 12 winners HAD NOT previously run at Epsom
- 12 of the last 12 winners had run at least once as a 3-year-old
- 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least three times
- 10 of the last 12 winners had been placed at least on their final start before the Oaks
- 9 of the last 12 winners had won at least once as a 3-year-old
- 9 of the last 12 winners had run at least once over at least 1m2f
- 9 of the last 12 winners did NOT go off favourite on the day
- 8 of the last 12 winners were rated 102+
- 8 of the last 12 winners HAD NOT previously scored in Group company
The 1,000 Guineas remains a hugely important pointer to the Oaks at Epsom, as proven by Love in 2020 and Minding in 2016. 2015 Oaks winner Qualify had trailed down the field in both the English and Irish Guineas but she left that form miles behind when stepping up in trip at Epsom.
Santa Barbara, who represents the same connections as those aforementioned winners, wasn’t able to justify favouritism at Newmarket but she did shape as though she would both benefit from the experience (was having just her second start) and the step up in trip at Epsom.
The Cheshire Oaks, run at Chester in May, has thrown up a couple of winners since 2017 and 2021 winner Dubai Fountain looks a player at Epsom despite representing a trainer who has yet to win the Oaks in Mark Johnston.
The Pretty Polly Stakes, a Listed race for fillies at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, is also a race that can have an impact on the Oaks. Talent (2013) and Taghrooda (2014) both went on to Epsom glory having won that contest.
Lingfield’s Oaks Trial has thrown up only 2019 winner Anapurna in the last decade.
The Musidora Stakes fav at York is ordinarily seen as a key trial for the Oaks but it hasn’t produced an Epsom winner since Sariska in 2009.
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Look no further than Aidan O’Brien, who has dominated the race in the modern era, winning it eight times since 1998, including four of the last six editions.
O’Brien’s dominance isn’t restricted to his runners that figure prominently in the market – he’s won the race with a 50/1 chance (Qualify) and a 20/1 chance (Was) in recent years.
John Gosden is another trainer with an excellent recent record in the race, winning it three times since 2014, most recently with Anapurna in 2019.
Ralph Beckett and Ed Dunlop are both double Oaks winners while William Haggas landed the prize with 20/1 chance Dancing Rain in 2011.
When it comes to recent form the two to concentrate on are Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore, who have both won the race twice in the last five years.
Dettori’s victories have both come aboard fillies trained by John Gosden while Moore tends to ride one of the big guns from the all-powerful Aidan O’Brien squad. It looks likely that Moore will be aboard Guineas third Santa Barbara this time around.
Ballydoyle tend to run more than one in the Oaks and the stable’s lesser lights shouldn’t be overlooked. Seamie Heffernan and Colm O’Donoghue have both ridden big-price winners for the team in the last decade.
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Who Fits The Cazoo Oaks Trends Best In 2021?
Likely market leader Santa Barbara has a bit to prove on the trends given she has only run twice in her life and has yet to go beyond a mile. For all that the step up in trip looks sure to suit.
Favourites don’t have a particularly strong record in recent years and although she is clearly held in high regard at home, a lack of experience could easily be her undoing.
Cheshire Oaks winner Dubai Fountain might not have the sexy profile of some of her rivals but she’s got the experience, was a good winner of one of the key trials and we know she will stay. She could go well, as could the runner-up from Chester, Zeyaadah, who probably has more scope for improvement having not had the smoothest of passages behind Dubai Fountain around Chester.
Musidora Stakes winner Snowfall only won a maiden from seven starts as a juvenile and went into the York race rated just 90. She was gifted a freebie on the front end in the Musidora and was surely flattered, so she doesn’t make much appeal at a single-figure price in the Oaks.
Lingfield Oaks trial winner Sherbet Lemon is only rated 99 after being reassessed so isn’t likely to be good enough.
Recent Epsom Oaks winners