Arkle Novices' Chase 2021 Trends

Our horse racing experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have taken a look at the key trends from the last 10 years which will help you find the best horse to follow in the 2021 renewal of the Arkle Novices' Chase.

11th February 2021 | By: Gavin Beech

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Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 2021 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2021 edition of the Arkle Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last ten renewals in order to help you find the winner of the two-mile Grade 1 novice event.

The last 10 winners:

Won on their last start.
Won at least once over fences.
Agred six, seven or eight years old.
Had only 4 or less starts over fences.
Had won previously under the same rider

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Were Irish or French-bred.
Winner over two miles previously.
Winning chase form on a left-handed track.
Had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, while six of the last ten winners had already won at the course.
Won or placed in a Grade 2 race or better

Key Arkle Chase Trials from the last 10 years

The Irish Arkle, run in early February, is a key trial with three winners (all trained by Willie Mullins) and three places coming from the race in the last 10 years. Notebook won the Irish Arkle in 2020 but proved disappointing when only sixth at Cheltenham despite going off 5/2f.
The Game Spirit Chase has thrown up two winners, with the brilliant Sprinter Sacre among the roll of honour.
2020 Arkle winner Put The Kettle On won the Grade 2 Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase at Prestbury Park in November 2019 but didn’t run again until the festival in March. Eldorado Allen won this season’s renewal.
The Wayward Lad Novices' Chase has thrown up one winner in the last 10 years (Dodging Bullets in 2013) and this year’s edition of the race was won by Shishkin.

Here's a look back at Shishkin's dominant display at Kempton last month! 🔥

How will he fare this weekend at @DoncasterRaces ? 🤔#ITVRacing pic.twitter.com/tAZuSGLVYM
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) January 28, 2021

Trainer Trends

With seven winners between them in the last 10 years, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have dominated recent Arkle Chases and the trend has every chance of continuing given Henderson is responsible for red-hot market leader Shishkin.
Willie Mullins has had the upper hand over the last few years with 4 wins in the last 6 renewals.
David Pipe, Phillip Hobbs and Henry de Bromhead are the other trainers to have won the race in the last 10 years.
Keep an eye on anything that could potentially head for the Arkle that is trained by Joseph O’Brien. He has yet to saddle a Cheltenham Festival winner, although he was afforded much of the credit for his father’s 2016 Triumph Hurdle success with Ivanovich Gorbatov, but has saddled the Arkle Chase runner-up in 2019 and 2020.

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Jockey Trends

Legendary riders Barry Geraghty and Ruby Walsh have dominated this race since 2012 but Walsh’s replacement, Paul Townend, quickly stepped up to the plate by steering Duc Des Genievres to victory in 2019.
Nico de Boinville has a fine record with a winner and two places from just three Arkle outings and there is obvious room for that record to be enhanced even further by Shishkin in 2021.
Aidan Coleman has a win (Put The Kettle On) and a place from just five Arkle rides.

How did the trends do last year?

It wasn’t a vintage year for the trends. Put The Kettle was a Grade 2 winner on her previous start but she brought a lower than average official rating to the table (only Western Warhorse in 2014 was rated lower in the last ten years) while the combination of her gender (females don’t have a great record in the race) and her price (Western Warhorse the only bigger priced winner in last ten years) would also have put many punters off.

Led all the way, jumped spectacularly, battled on bravely 💪👏

An amazing performance from Put The Kettle On as she out-guns all comers to win the @RacingPost Arkle Challenge Trophy for Aidan Coleman and Henry de Bromhead!#CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/hQKzzx3cE8
— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) March 10, 2020

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2021?

Ante-post Arkle Chase betting revolves around one horse – the mighty Shishkin who hasn’t put a foot wrong in two chase starts this season. We know he will be fine on the track because he won last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, he fits the bill age and runs wise, and he’s already won a Grade 2 chase so he’s very difficult to oppose even though his price is hugely prohibitive.

It tells you all you need to know about Shishkin’s reputation that he is a good deal shorter in the market than Grade 1-winning chaser Allmankind. Dan Skelton’s charge has a rock-solid profile trends wise and would be a worthy favourite were it not for the presence of a potential chasing superstar.

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2020 Arkle Novices' Chase Result

Position	Name	Price	Trainer	Jockey
1st	Put The Kettle On	16/1	Henry De Bromhead	Aidan Coleman
2nd	Fakir D’oudairies	3/1	Joseph Patrick O'Brien	Mark Walsh
3rd	Rouge Vif	9/1	Harry Whittington	Gavin Sheehan