Arkle Novices' Chase 2020 Trends

Our horse racing experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have taken a look at the key trends from the last 10 years which will help you find the best horse to follow in the 2020 renewal of the Arkle Novices' Chase.

26th January 2020 | By: Diarmuid Nolan

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2020 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Trends

The last 10 winners:

Won on their last start.
Won at least once over fences.
Agred six, seven or eight years old.
Had only 4 or less starts over fences.
Had their last start in the last 75 days before the Arkle.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Were Irish or French-bred.
Were rated 151 or higher.
Won over 2 miles previously.
Won at a left handed racecourse.
Had a start at Cheltenham, and 5 of these had actually won at the course.

Eight of the last 10 winners:

Had won at least a Graded race (6 of the 8 had won at the highest level).

Key Trials from the last 10 years

The Irish Arkle is they key trial with 3 winners and 3 places coming from the race in the last 10 years. Notebook won this race in 2020.
The Game Spirit Chase has thrown up two winners, with the brilliant Sprinter Sacre among the roll of honour.
The Racing Post Novice Chase has thrown up one winner in the last ten years in the shape of Sizing Europe. Notebook won this in 2019.
The Wayward Lad Novices' Chase has thrown up one winner in the last 10 years. Global Citizen won this in 2019.

Two top-quality novice chasers - Notebook and Fakir D'oudairies excelled.#LeopardstownHighlights pic.twitter.com/g0DI0EyP96
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 29, 2019

Trainer Trends

With 7 winners between them in the last 10 years, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have dominated the Arkle of late and it shows no sign of stopping.
Willie Mullins has had the upper hand over the last few years with 4 wins in the last 5 renewals.
David Pipe, Phillip Hobbs and Henry de Bromhead are the other trainers to have won the race in the last 10 years.
Ireland has impressively had 6 of the past 11 winners.

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Jockey Trends

Barry Geraghty, the king of 2 mile chasing, has a supreme record in the race. From 13 starts Barry has won 4 times and placed on 7 occasions.
Ruby Walsh rode 3 winners in the last 10 years and Paul Townend was victorious aboard Duc des Genievres in 2020, all 4 for the all conquering Willie Mullins.
Nico de Boinville has a fine record with a winner and 2 places from 3 starts.

How did the trends do last year?

Duc des Genievres was a strong victory for the trends in 2019.

The Willie Mullins-trained grey stood out on trends ticking a lot of last time trends with his commanding Gowran Park beginners' chase win. He had also had the right amount of runs that season and arrived in with experience, whilst also relatively fresh.

The biggest factor on the trends however was that he had been fifth at the Cheltenham Festival over hurdles a year earlier and that experience was vital as the trends suggested.

Another one for Willie Mullins - Duc Des Genievres bolts up in the Arkle! #TheFestival #CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/BMxBVvHXeh
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 12, 2019

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

At the moment Notebook has done everything right and ticks a lot of trends and it has to be remembered that he has also taken in the Cheltenham Festival before which is always a good gauge here in the trends. The Irish Arkle is a great trends race and he also took this. The one major negative for him is his poor hurdle rating.

Global Citizen is another horse who has won the right trial and may be the value here.

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2019 Arkle Novices' Chase Result

Position	Name	Price	Trainer	Jockey
1st	Duc Des Genievres	5/1	WP Mullins	Paul Townend
2nd	Us And Them	14/1	Joseph Patrick O'Brien	JJ Slevin
3rd	Articulum	25/1	Terence O'Brien	David Mullins