Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 2020 Trends

As with the majority of Cheltenham Festival races, there are certain trends that can help punters to find the winner. Our horse racing experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have taken a look at the most important statistics from the last 10 years which will help you find the best horse to follow in the 2020 renewal of the Ballymore Novices Hurdle.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 2020 Trends

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2020 Ballymore Hurdle Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Rated 142 or higher
  • Finish in top two in their last race
  • Victory in one of their previous three races
  • Have 2-4 previous novice hurdle runs
  • Last run between 31 - 75 days beforehand
  • At least two wins on a galloping track

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Won last time out (or beaten by no more than a neck)
  • Victory in 2-3 hurdle races
  • Has won over at least 2m4f
  • Has won on a left-handed course
  • Never ran at Cheltenham before

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Won on their last start
  • Last run was in a Graded hurdle

Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • The Grade 2 Classic Novices' Hurdle has thrown up two winners in the last 10 years (Yanworth & The New One). Harry Senior won this in 2020.
  • The Grade 1 Deloitte Novices' Hurdle has seen two winners over the last decade (Samcro & Windsor Park). Asterion Forlonge was the winner in the 2020 renewal.
  • Peddlers Cross (2010 winner) won the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle before romping home in the 2010 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle.
  • A number of Challow Novices' Hurdle and Slaney Novice Hurdle (both G1) winners have been Ballymore place finishers over the last 10 years (Champ, Next Destination, Rule The World & Monksland).


Trainer Trends

  • Willie Mullins dominates the field here with 24 runs over the last decade, with two wins and six placed finishes - accumulating to an 8% win strike rate.
  • Dermot Weld has the best win percentage in this race, standing at 33% with one win in three runs.
  • Gordon Elliott and Mouse Morris also have one victory each in this race.

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Jockey Trends

  • Ruby Walsh rode four winners for Willie Mullins in the last 10 years before his retirement. Paul Townend has taken over the lead jockey duties and will be the man to watch in his absence.
  • Davy Russell has won the race twice in the last 10 years for Mouse Morris and DK Weld.
  • Barry Geraghty, Sam Twiston-Davies and Jack Kennedy are also worth monitoring having had previous scalps in this race.

How did the trends do last year?

City Island (8/1) gave Martin Brassil and owners Bernadine and Sean Mulryan a first Cheltenham Festival win here last year, bucking the trends to beat the heavily fancied Champ by two lengths.

The six-year-old had easy wins at Leopardstown and Naas but his performance against this stiffer competition was not widely predicted by punters or bookies.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

Envoi Allen has shown exactly what he's capable of so far this season and is worthy of his standing as the outright favourite at 5/4.

The unbeaten six-year-old has had impressive wins at Naas, Fairyhouse and Down Royal and fits the bill for a number of trends that are outlined above.

2019 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stCity Island8/1Mark WalshMartin Brassil
2ndChamp9/2Barry GeraghtyNicky Henderson
3rdBright Forecast25/1Nico de BoinvilleBen Pauling

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