Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase 2020 Trends

Cheltenham's Foxhunter Chase is among the trickiest Festival races, but some strong trends can point out the winner. So we've looked at the most important trends from the last 10 years for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2020 Foxhunter Chase.

Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase 2020 Trends

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2020 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Were bred in Ireland or France
  • Were aged no older than 11
  • Had won a hunter chase
  • Last ran in a hunter chase
  • Had won at least four times over fences, including in point-to-points
  • Last ran no more than 53 days ago

 

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Finished in the first three on their last run
  • Last won no more than three runs ago
  • Had won on a left-handed track

Key Trials in the last 10 years

With so many hunter chase options, there are not many recognised trials for the Foxhunter Chase.

Traditionally, the Raymond Smith Memorial Hunter Chase at Leopardstown in February was the best guide, but that has been discontinued with the creation of the Dublin Racing Festival.

The best bet for the 2020 Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham is to follow horses that win hunter chases run on left-handed courses, preferably ones described as 'galloping', 'undulating', or 'testing'.

  • In 2019, Hazel Hill used a hunter chase at Warwick as a springboard to Festival victory. Minella Rocco won that race in 2020.


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Trainer Trends

  • If you had bet £1 on all of Paul Nicholls's 13 runners in the last 10 years, you would be £30 in profit! Having won two of the last three runnings, he's a serious trainer to follow .
  • Irish trainer Enda Bolger has saddled two winners and a placed finisher from seven runners in the last 10 years.
  • Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled three runners; one won, one placed.
  • Irish trainers have won six of the last 10 renewals, but not the last three

 


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Jockey Trends

  • Four of the last five runnings have been won by female jockeys.
  • Six of the last 10 runnings have been won by jockeys based in Ireland

How did the trends do last year?

Winner Hazel Hill was a trends dream in the 2019 Foxhunter Chase, ticking all the boxes, especially the really crucial fitness and experience trends. If your horse doesn't fit those trends, they either won't be fit enough, or won't have enough zest from being over-raced.

Second Shantou Flyer and the fourth and fifth, Road To Rome and Ucello Conti were also bang on the trends, highlighting just how important they are in this unique Cheltenham Festival test



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

Having won the same Warwick hunter chase that Hazel Hill (and Baby Run in 2010) won last year, trends really point towards Minello Rocco, especially as he was ridden to that win by female jockey, Aine O'Connor.

Already a Cheltenham Festival winner in the 2016 National Hunt Chase, he finished an amazing second in the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup, over the same course and distance as the Foxhunter Chase.

Hazel Hill is 2/2 at Cheltenham, and recently returned to action to win a point-to-point, but is now aged 12, and every winner in the past 10 years last ran in a hunter chase - not a point-to-point - before their Festival victory.


2019 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stHazel Hill7/2fPhilip RowleyMr Alex Edwards
2ndShantou Flyer7/1Richard HobsonMr David Maxwell
3rdTop Wood33/1Kelly MorganMs Tabitha Worsley

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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