Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle 2020 Trends

Even in a Cheltenham Festival race so young, following trends can pay dividends! So we've taken a look at the most important Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends, and used them to find you the best horses to follow right now for the 2020 Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle.

Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle 2020 Trends

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2020 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle Trends


All four winners:

  • Were trained by Willie Mullins
  • Had run in France
  • Had won that season
  • If they had a rating, were officially rated at least 144
  • Were aged five

 

Three of the race's four winners:

  • Were favourite in the betting
  • Had won last time out
  • Had won at least twice over hurdles
  • Had won over further than 2m
  • Had won a Graded hurdle race
  • Last ran no more than 47 days ago


Key Trials for the Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle

With only four runnings, there aren't many reliable trials to follow, but star trainer Willie Mullins does prefer to test his contenders at Fairyhouse or Leopardstown

  • The Grade 3 Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse has been won by two winners of this race (Limini & Laurina). Minella Melody won the 2020 renewal.


Trainer Trends

  • All four runnings have been won by trainer Willie Mullins, and in 2019 he also saddled the second, so he's clearly the man to follow here.
  • Gordon Elliott and Alan King are 0/5 and 0/3, but have each saddled two placed mares, suggesting a win for them is right around the corner.
  • A trainer to avoid is Nicky Henderson, who is 0/8, despite saddling hot favourite Epatante in 2019.

 


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Jockey Trends

  • Willie Mullins' first choice jockey has won three of the four runnings, but in 2019 Noel Fehily sprung a 50/1 surprise on Eglantine Du Seuil.

How did the trends do last year?

Considering winner Eglantine Du Seuil was sent off at 50/1, and second Concertista came in at 66/1, it was unsurprising that the 2019 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle was a trends bust.

In a bizarre race, run on very testing ground, Eglantine Du Seuil won despite having not run for 108 days. She had not won a Graded hurdle, and had never even run at trainer Willie Mullins' favourite trial courses; Leopardstown and Fairyhouse.

She was aged five though, like all the winners before, and had been trained in France, and had at least won a hurdle race - though only over 2m. The second? Well, she was also aged five and previously trained in France, but had never run in a hurdle race before!

This is one Cheltenham Festival race that might be a few years off producing reliable trends, if 2019 is anything to go by.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

Trainer Willie Mullin's Dolicta is the one with the most positives on the trends right now.

Aged five, she is a French-bred with form over hurdles in her native France, owned by the same owners as Eglantine Du Seruil and Laurina, and she has already won one hurdle race in Ireland by 11 lengths.

She was 3rd in the Grade 3 Solerina Mares' Hurdle at Fairyhouse, where the winner Minella Melody is naturally one to take seriously too.

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2019 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stEglantine Du Seuil50/1Willie MullinsNoel Fehily
2ndConcertista66/1Willie MullinsDanny Mullins
3rdTintangle40/1Gordon ElliottJack Kennedy

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