Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Chase 2020 Trends

The trends of a race can be really useful to follow when looking for winners at the Cheltenham Festival, especially in tricky handicap chases. So we've taken a look at the most important Festival Plate trends from the last 10 years for you, and used them to find you the best horses to follow right now for the 2020 Festival Plate.

Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Chase 2020 Trends

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2020 Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Carried at least 5lbs less than the top weight
  • Had won no more than five chases
  • Were running off a career-high handicap rating - or no more than 3lbs lower
  • Finished first or second in at least one of their last three races
  • Last ran in a novice chase or handicap chase
  • Had won on a course described as galloping

 

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Had never won at Cheltenham before
  • Had won no more than two handicap chases, three winning none
  • Finished in the first two last time out
  • Had won over fences in a race at least 2m3f long
  • Featured sixth or lower in the weights, carrying no more than 10st 13lbs

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Last ran no more than 70 days ago
  • Had won over fences on a left-handed track

Key Trials from the last 10 years

With Cheltenham's handicaps, it's often better to look down the field in the popular trials, rather than at the winner, but we've given you the winners below as a guide.

  • Last year's winner Siruh Du Lac used what is now the Grade 3 Paddy Power Trophy Handicap Chase at Cheltenham as a springboard to Festival Plate success. The 2019 second Janika also ran in that race, along with three other placed finishers in the last 10 years. Cepage won the 2020 renewal.
  • The BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham has also proven a useful trial, with one winner (Ballynagour) and four placed finishers in the past 10 years. Happy Diva won this trial in 2019.
  • Any Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham run over 2m4f-2m5f - just like the ones above - is a great trial for this race. Another to watch is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup with one winner and five placed finishers in 10 years.Warthog won it in 2019.

Trainer Trends

  • Trainer David Pipe is the trainer to follow in this handicap chase with three winners and four placed horses from 21 runners in the past 10 years. Had you bet £1 on all his runners, you would be up £16.50.
  • Gordon Elliott's record is good too, with a winner and a placed finisher from only four runners.

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Jockey Trends

  • As David Pipe is the trainer to follow, so is his jockey Tom Scudamore, who has ridden Pipe's last two winners.
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  • Bryan Cooper has also enjoyed two wins in the last 10 years, both coming for owners Gigginstown House Stud.

How did the trends do last year?

Few winners of the Festival Plate could bust as many trends as Siruh Du Lac. Carrying the lowest weight in six years, he had also won at Cheltenham, in a chase, before, and accumulated a whopping five handicap chase victories - just a tad more than the preferred two.

He was far too exposed for the trends to consider him a Cheltenham Festival candidate in this handicap chase, but nobody told him, nor delighted jockey Lizzie Kelly.

Luckily, the trends did pinpoint the third and fourth, Spiritofthegames and Eamon An Cnoic, who were both lightly-raced, had run at Cheltenham without victory, and had now won more than two handicap chases.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

At the moment, there are the most positives in the trends for the David Pipe-trained Eamon An Cnoic, who finished fourth last year. He ticked a lot of trends then, and does so again, having run in the BetVictor Gold Cup.

He is slightly preferred over stablemate Warthog, who placed in that race, but also won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

Cepage, Lalor and Spiritofthegames have all taken part also in the right trials and carry in strong form.

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2019 Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stSiruh Du Lac6/1Nick WilliamsLizzie Kelly
2ndJanike5/2fNicky HendersonDaryl Jacob
3rdBallyhill7/1Nigel Twiston-DaviesJordan Nailor
4thThe Kings Writ10/1Kayley WoollacottJames Best

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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