The Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase 2022 Trends

The trends of a race can be really useful to follow when looking for winners at the Cheltenham Festival, especially in tricky handicap chases. So we've taken a look at the most important Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase trends from the last 10 years for you, and used them to find you the best horses to follow right now for the 2022 Festival Plate.

The Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase 2022 Trends
The Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase 2022 Trends

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Need some help finding the winner of the 2022 edition of the The Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of this hotly-contested handicap.


2022 Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Were aged 6-9
  • Had won at least one chase but no more than five
  • Were running off a career-high handicap rating - or no more than 3lbs lower
  • Had an average chase handicap rating of 142
  • Were not topweight; only three finishing top four
  • Had won on a course described as galloping
  • Finished first or second in at least one of their last three races (same is true for 39/40 horses that finished 1st-4th in the last 10 runnings)

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Had won no more than three handicap chases, 3 winning none (exception Siruh Du Lac)
  • Last ran in a novice chase or handicap chase on a galloping track - five at Cheltenham (exception The Shunter won handicap hurdle)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Were carrying less than 11st
  • Last ran no more than 70 days ago, including last seven winners
  • Had run at least three times that season, including last seven winners, who had also won at least once that term - four of them winning last time out (including the last three)
  • Had never won a chase at Cheltenham before (exceptions won in 2019 and 2020 suggesting an emerging trend against this)

Key Trials from the last 10 years

With Cheltenham's handicaps, it's often better to look down the field in the popular trials, rather than at the winner, but we've given you the winners below as a guide.

Any Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham run over 2m4f-2m5f is a great trial for this race, here are some of the key examples:

  • The 2019 winner Siruh Du Lac won what is now the Grade 3 Paddy Power Trophy Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in late January before Festival Plate success. The 2019 second Janika also finished second in that race, along with three other placed finishers in the last 10 years. Torn And Frayed won this in 2022.
  • The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November has also proven a useful trial, with one winner (Ballynagour PU) and five placed finishers in the past 10 years. Midnight Shadow won this in 2021.
  • Another to watch is the Racing Post Gold Cup in December with one winner (Salut Flo 13th) and four placed finishers in 10 years. Coole Cody won this in 2021.
  • 2015 winner Darna finished fifth in the BetVictor Gold Cup and then seventh in the Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase. That race has produced two other placed finishers in the last 10 years. Vienna Court won this race in 2022.

Trainer Trends

  • Nicky Henderson has won this race four times and leads the way among those still operating. However, the last of those came in 2006.
  • David Pipe has won it three times since 2010, which leaves him just one shy of his father Martin's record. David Pipe has also saddled four placed horses, most recently Eamon An Cnoic who was 4th in 2019.
  • Gordon Elliott has only had a handful of runners in the race but he’s registered a winner, a place and a fifth in 2020.

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Jockey Trends

  • Bryan Cooper and Tom Scudamore have both won the race twice in the last decade.
  • Cooper’s victories have come in the last six editions and on both occasions, he was carrying the colours of major owners Gigginstown House Stud.
  • Scudamore was aboard two of David Pipe’s three winners, the last of which came in 2014.

How did the trends do last year?

The Shunter was an unusual winner in that his greatest exploit that season had been victory in the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham's November meeting.

He'd shown a glimmer of his chasing ability when third in a 2m handicap chase at Leopardstown since then, but his final run before Cheltenham was winning the Morebattle Handicap Hurdle at Kelso.

No other winner in the last 20 years lined up for this race off the back of a hurdle outing.

Aside from that, he fit the exposure and experience trends and was booked to carry less than 11st, while running off a career-high handicap mark.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2022?

With the removal of the novices' handicap chase from the Festival line-up, we can expect to see more high-class novices taking part in this event, which is run over the same distance as that novices' event was.

Already the profile of winners has changed in recent years, moving away from a seasoned campaigner and towards an up-and-coming type with plenty of recent success.

Heading the betting are two novices: recent Grade 3 Cheltenham handicap chase winner Torn And Frayed and Imperial Alcazar, who won a novices' handicap chase at Cheltenham the same day.

Imperial Alcazar's handicap rating is now too high at 152, but Torn And Frayed is on a very attractive and trend-fitting 139. Both are at career-high marks, which is a plus, but only the latter looks set to carry less than 11st.

Vienna Court, a winner at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, also fits the bill if opting for this over the new Mares' Chase, as does that day's third Alnadam, who appeared not to stay when seventh at the Festival in last year's 3m1f Ultima Handicap Chase.

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2021 Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stThe Shunter9/4fEmmet MullinsJordan Gainsford
2ndFarclas5/1Denise FosterJack Kennedy
3rdTop Notch50/1Nicky HendersonLuca Morgan
4thCoole Cody22/1Evan WilliamsTom O'Brien

Cheltenham Festival 2022 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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