Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2020 Trends

The best way to narrow down the field in any Cheltenham Festival handicap is by analysing the race trends. So we've looked at the most important Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle trends for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2020 running.

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle 2020 Trends

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2020 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Were bred in France or Ireland
  • Did not run in a maiden hurdle last time out - 0/32
  • Had run in no more than six hurdle races
  • Had won no more than two hurdle races
  • Had not won a Graded hurdle
  • Had never run at Cheltenham before
  • Finished in the top seven last time out - only three won

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Last ran no more than 53 days ago
  • Carried at least 5lbs less than the top weight
  • Were officially rated more than 126
  • Last finished in the first two no more than two runs ago
  • Were either favourite, second-favourite or had odds greater than 20/1 - exception was 9/1

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Had won a hurdle race

Key Trials in the last 10 years

  • The Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Novices' Hurdle at Kempton has thrown out two winners (Flying Tiger & Une Artiste) and one placed horse in the past 10 years. The 2020 running is on February 22.
  • The Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown has thrown out one winner (Flaxen Flare) and one placed horse in the past 10 years. A Wave Of The Sea won this in 2020
  • The Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle at Huntingdon has thrown out two placed horses (Style De Garde & Divin Bere) in the past 10 years. The 2020 running was unfortunately abandoned due to flooding.
  • In 2019, Band Of Outlaws had last run in a novice hurdle at Naas, winning very impressively, as you can see below. Aramax won this in 2020.

Trainer Trends

  • Paul Nicholls is brilliant to follow here, having saddled three winners and six placed horses from 19 runners in the past 10 years.
  • Gordon Elliott is catching up through; he's 2/15, with three placed runners, and if you'd put £1 on all 15, you'd be £45 in profit!
  • Nick Williams is another to follow, with one winner (and a placed finisher) from seven runners giving his supporters £27.00 profit.
  • Nicky Henderson is 1/11 in the past 10 years, but has also had two placed horses in that time, so his £1 backers are still up £30!

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Jockey Trends

  • No jockey has won the race more than once in the last 10 years

How did the trends do last year?

With winner Band Of Outlaws carrying 3lbs more weight than any other winner in the past 11 years of the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, he was readily ruled out by the trends - sadly.

The only horse in the top four hitting the trends was second Coko Beach, who was trained by top race trainer Gordon Elliott and fit all the important trends from this Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdle in last 10 years.

Chatteris Fen Hurdle winner Prabeni also fit the bill perfectly, and was really attractive at 40/1, but was hammered by the unseasonably soft ground. Ditto Adonis Hurdle third Praeceps, who was game enough in sixth.

Lack of a recent run put ruled third Ciel De Neige and fourth King D'Argent out on trends, Ciel De Neige highlighting the importance of changing tactics when the ground turns extreme to pay closer attention to mudlarks, regardless of their trends score.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

At the moment, Aramax has the most positives in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle trends, having won one hurdle race, from three outings.

Crucially, his last outing was in a maiden hurdle, the same race Band Of Outlaws won in 2019! He's also trained by Gordon Elliott and presently looks booked for a nice weight.

The Paul Nicholls-trained Sir Psycho is also bang on the trends radar, with two wins from three runs, including in a novices' hurdle. He's also run in a handicap, which is an added experience bonus.

Though potentially a little exposed, Wolf Prince, already confirmed for this Cheltenham Festival race by trainer Gavin Cromwell, is a two-time hurdle winner, who has mixed it with proper Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle types, and could well prove a class apart.



2019 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stBand Of Outlaws7/2fJoseph O'BrienJJ Slevin
2ndCoko Beach14/1Gordon ElliottJack Kennedy
3rdCiel De Neige17/2Willie MullinsRuby Walsh
4thKing D'Argent25/1Dan SkeltonHarry Skelton

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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