General Election 2019 Betting Tips:
|Lib Dems to win South Cambridgeshire||13/10||Unibet|
|No Overall Majority||12/5||Royal Panda|
|Labour To Win Chipping Barnet||11/10||Ladbrokes|
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So we're into the final straight of a turbulent and tiring 2019 General Election campaign. The Conservatives looked on course for something approaching a landslide victory at the end of last month, but last night's YouGov MRP poll saw Boris Johnson's predicted majority slashed from 68 to 28.
The results of the final YouGov MRP model for #GE2019 are now here:— YouGov (@YouGov) December 10, 2019
Con – 339 seats / 43% vote share
Lab – 231 / 34%
SNP – 41 / 3%
LD – 15 / 12%
Plaid – 4 / 1%
Green – 1 / 3%
Brexit Party – 0 / 3%
Conservative majority of 28https://t.co/IAyXTc89vHpic.twitter.com/yk3dNAhN0p
Taking margin for error into account, YouGov say the number of Tory seats could be anywhere between 311 and 367 with 326 the magic number for a majority in the House of Commons. Labour have 'gained' 20 seats since the first MRP poll a fortnight ago and events appear to be swinging slightly in their favour.
The basis for the MRP poll is “105,612 interviews conducted over seven days up to and including 10th December”. And significantly, discussions surrounding the election have switched away from Brexit – Johnson's campaign focal point – to topics more favourable to Labour.
What stories from the election campaign have you noticed in the last few days? pic.twitter.com/GcyTkYdWNQ— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) December 10, 2019
That will only have been magnified by the Tories' latest set of faux pas – from Johnson pocketing a reporter's mobile phone when confronted by a photo of a four-year-old boy lying on coats in a Leeds' A&E department, to 'Punchgate', and only this morning the PM avoiding being interviewed on Good Morning Britain by apparently hiding in a fridge.
Things are very tight indeed with YouGov reporting “85 seats where the leading party is ahead by five percentage points or less”. There is a chance we have not yet seen the full effect of tactical voting which has been supported by a number of high-profile celebrities in recent days. And the weather could well have a say with heavy rain forecast for much of the country on polling day. How much will that affect turnout?
Will the 'Red Wall' hold?
Much has been said about Labour's 'Red Wall' – a band of traditionally Labour-voting constituencies in the North of England and the Midlands – being close to collapse. But the latest MRP poll suggests that Labour has rallied in these seats. Would a low turnout prevent floating voters opting for the Tories?
And what of Jeremy Corbyn? His popularity ratings remain low although he has largely managed to avoid the mishaps Johnson has befallen in recent weeks. Will the prospect of him in 10 Downing St, which was never really a possibility two years ago, turn off those who voted Labour in 2017?
The Lib Dem surge petered out fairly early on and their main hope is that Labour supporters lend them their vote to displace Tories in the South. The SNP will be similarly relying on the votes of Labour and Lib Dem supporters with YouGov suggesting they are on course to take at least six seats from the Tories. In such a close contest, Northern Ireland's 18 seats also take on new importance.
It really is too close to call but as far as 2019 General Election betting goes, there are three markets which catch my eye at this late stage. One is the seat of Chipping Barnet in which YouGov gave the Tories a 28 percent chance of holding off Labour. The bookies have reacted slightly but not enough, in my view, so Labour to win the seat at 11/10 with Ladbrokes looks a solid bet.
YouGov also give the Tories a 28 percent chance of holding Cambridgeshire South. I previously advised a bet at 6/5 so I would have to suggest another wager at 13/10 with Unibet given this should be a 4/6 shot at best.
The final market is whether the Conservatives can secure that crucial majority. I think there are enough variables to suggest this will be a very close-run thing and 2/5 about a Tory majority looks too short to my eyes. So back No Overall Majority at 12/5 with Royal Panda.
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|Lib Dems to win Wokingham||11/4||Unibet|
|Lib Dems to win South Cambridgeshire||6/5||William Hill|
|250-299 total Conservative seats||8/1||Ladbrokes|