Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Trends

Finding the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup is not easy, but trends can seriously help! We've worked out the most important Gold Cup trends from the last 10 years for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2022 running of this famous chase.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Trends
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Trends

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Need some help finding the winner of the 2022 edition of the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of the festival’s blue-riband contest.

2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Were aged no older than nine (last winner aged older was 1998)
  • Had run at Cheltenham before
  • Had won at least two chases
  • Had won a Grade 1 before
  • Had won on a left-handed track
  • Won last time out - or last won at the last Cheltenham Festival
  • Had not run for at least 33 days before the Gold Cup
  • Last ran in Ireland or at Newbury

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Had run in at least five chases
  • Had won at least three chases
  • Had won over at least 3m before
  • Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
  • Were officially rated 164 or higher
  • Did not wear any headgear in the race

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Key Trials in the last 10 years

  • Three of the last 10 winners last ran in the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup in February at Leopardstown (Sizing John, Lord Windermere and Minella Indo), though only Sizing John won both. Additionally three Irish Gold Cup runners placed at Cheltenham. Conflated won the 2022 renewal, beating Minella Indo in an 18-1 upset.
  • The Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury in February has produced two of the last five winners (Native River and Coneygree) and has thrown out three placed runners in 10 years.
  • Traditionally the Grade 1 King George VI Chase in December has been a good trial, but it's last winner was Long Run in 2011. Four runners have been placed since (Lostintranslation, Bristol De Mai, Might Bite and Long Run). The Willie Mullins-trained Tornado Flyer caused a 28-1 upset in this in 2021.
  • The Grade 2 Cotswold Chase in January at Cheltenham has only produced two placed horses in the past 10 years. Chantry House beat former stablemate Santini in 2022.
  • Al Boum Photo has been kept to calmer waters away from the festival. His warm-up race before victories in 2019 and 2020 was the Grade 3 Savills Chase at Tramore on New Year’s Day. He also ran in this race before his 2021 third. He won this again this year, beating stablemate Burrows Saint.

## Trainer Trends- No modern trainer has saddled more than **Paul Nicholls**'s four winners. His last winner was 2009, but he's had placed horses since and remains worth following, although he has no entry in 2022. - **Willie Mullins**' first Gold Cup winner was Al Boum Photo in 2019 and he followed up in 2020, finishing third in 2021. That was his sixth placed runner in the race in the last 10 years. - **Nicky Henderson** has saddled one winner and four placed horses from 12 runners in the last 10 years. Chantry House is his big hope in 2022. - **Gordon Elliott** also has a good record here, with one winner from five runners. He has Leopardstown Grade 1 winners Galvin and Conflated for 2022. - Ireland has won five of the last six runnings.

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Jockey Trends

  • Thanks to Al Boum Photo, Paul Townend is the only current jockey to win the race more than once in recent history.
  • Nico de Boinville won the race on Coneygree in 2015 and very nearly doubled up on the fast-finishing Santini in 2020.

How did the trends do last year?

Al Boum Photo was primed to become the first since Best Mate to win three Cheltenham Gold Cups, but has his party spoiled by the Henry De Bromhead-trained paid Minella Indo and A Plus Tard.

Both previous Cheltenham Festival winners, they were one and two years younger than Al Boum Photo and the winner, Minella Indo, had come into the race after finishing fourth in the Irish Gold Cup, a key trial.

He definitely fit the bill and ticked all the boxes, but so did Al Boum Photo.


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Who Fits The Trends Best In 2022?

Al Boum Photo is due to line up for a fourth time, but the stats are stacked against him achieving a famous third victory. Only two horses aged older than nine (he's 10) have won the race in the past 30 years and none since Cool Dawn in 1998.

Plus, there's only one Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in this race's 98-year history that came back from a defeat in the race to win it again - Kauto Star in 2009.

It would be a truly historic effort for Al Boum Photo to win the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Applying the trends whittles the remainder of the field down to five likely winners: Minella Indo, Galvin, Protektorat, Tornado Flyer and Chantry House.

Conflated could also be on this list, but he has never run at Cheltenham before and that experience has proven absolutely essential in the past 15 years.

Of those shortlisted, Chantry House and Tornado Flyer last ran in the trials with the least recent success in the race, while Protektorat has not run since early December.

He would go up in estimations significantly if appearing in Newbury's Denman Chase entries, which are revealed on Monday, February 7.

That leaves Minella Indo and Galvin leading the trends picks, with five weeks to go.


2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stMinella Indo9/1Henry De BromheadJack Kennedy
2ndA Plus Tard100/30Henry De BromheadRachael Blackmore
3rdAl Boum Photo9/4fWillie MullinsPaul Townend

Cheltenham Festival 2022 Trends

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