Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020 Trends

Finding the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup is not easy, but trends can seriously help! We've worked out the most important Gold Cup trends from the last 10 years for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2020 running of this famous chase.

26th January 2020 | By: Jessica Lamb

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2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

The last 10 winners:

Were aged no older than nine
Had run at Cheltenham before
Had won at least two chases
Had won a Grade 1 before
Had won on a left-handed track
Won last time out - or last won at the last Cheltenham Festival
Had not run for at least 33 days before the Gold Cup

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Had run in at least five chases before
Had won over at least 3m before
Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
Were officially rated 164 or higher
Did not wear any headgear in the race

The last five winners:

Won last time out
Had won at least three chases
Had run no more than four times that season

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Key Trials in the last 10 years

The Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown has produced two of the last seven winners (Sixing John & Lord Windermere) and three placed horses. Delta Work won the 2020 running of this race.
The Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury has produced two of the last five winners (Native River & Coneygree) and has thrown out four placed runners in 10 years. Native River won this contest once again in 2020.
Traditionally, the Grade 1 King George VI Chase has been a good trial, but it's last winner was Long Run in 2011. Three runners have been placed since. Clan Des Obeaux won this trial in 2019.
The Grade 2 Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham has only produced two placed horses in the past 10 years.Santini will look to end this poor run in 2020.

👑 A Grade One contest turned into an absolute procession!

Clan Des Obeaux wins the King George VI Chase for a second time!

🏆 2018
🏆 2019

An 11th success for @PFNicholls in the @kemptonparkrace showpiece & a first victory in the race for @samtwiston pic.twitter.com/0ESepkHNOD
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 26, 2019

Trainer Trends

Nicky Henderson is the man to follow in the Gold Cup in the last 10 years. He's saddled two winners and three placed horses from just 10 runners. Santini is his big hope in 2020.
No modern trainer has saddled more winners than Paul Nicholls. His last winner was 2009, but he's had placed horses since and remains worth following. Clan Des Obeaux will carry his hopes.
In 2019, Willie Mullins finally got his first Gold Cup winner. He saddled 19 losers in the past 10 years, five finishing second, but Al Boum Photo broke the hoodoo.
Like in most races, Gordon Elliott has a good record here, with one winner from four runners in the race.
Ireland has won four of the last six runnings.

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Jockey Trends

No jockey has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup more than once in the past 12 years.
Of all the jockeys presently riding, Barry Geraghty is the only dual-winner; taking it in 2005 & 2013

How did the trends do last year?

It was a Cheltenham Festival trends bust, unfortunately. Al Boum Photo was a Grade 1 winner, but he had never won over 3m, and had fallen the only time he had run at Cheltenham before.

Even his trainer's first jockey Ruby Walsh didn't rank him as the stable's best hope, the trends best fitting the winner's stablemates Kemboy and Bellshill. They had won key trials - both Grade 1s - last time, and had run well in staying chases at Cheltenham before.

But fate does not comply with trends; Kemboy unseated at the first fences, and 11-time winner Bellshill jumped terribly, before being pulled up, failing to complete a race for only the second time in 22 outings.

After SIX seconds in the race, the moment @WillieMullinsNH won the 2019 @MagnersUK Cheltenham Gold Cup with Al Boum Photo…#CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/M6ak4xNSCx
— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) March 15, 2019

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

At the moment, Al Boum Photo, is still the one to beat but horses defending their Gold Cup crowns tend to struggle, so Delta Work won the right trial race and has a good profile for Gold Cup glory.

A Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles, he was third in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last year, has obviously won a Grade 1 over fences, and is the right age.

It will be very interesting now to see who rides him.

2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup Result

Position	Name	Price	Trainer	Jockey
1st	Al Boum Photo	12/1	Willie Mullins	Paul Townend
2nd	Anibale Fly	22/1	Tony Martin	Barry Geraghty
3rd	Bristol De Mai	18/1	Nigel Twiston-Davies	Daryl Jacob