Cheltenham Gold Cup 2021 Trends

Finding the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup is not easy, but trends can seriously help! We've worked out the most important Gold Cup trends from the last 10 years for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2021 running of this famous chase.

26th February 2021 | By: Gavin Beech

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Need some help finding the winner of the 2021 edition of the WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last ten renewals in order to help you find the winner of the festival’s blue-riband contest.

2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

The last 10 winners:

Were aged no older than nine
Had run at Cheltenham before
Had won at least two chases
Had won a Grade 1 before
Had won on a left-handed track
Won last time out - or last won at the last Cheltenham Festival
Had not run for at least 33 days before the Gold Cup

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Had run in at least five chases before
Had won over at least 3m before
Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase
Were officially rated 164 or higher
Did not wear any headgear in the race

The last five winners:

Won last time out
Had won at least three chases
Had run no more than four times that season

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Key Trials in the last 10 years

The Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown has produced two of the last eight winners (Sixing John & Lord Windermere) and three placed horses.
The Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury has produced two of the last five winners (Native River & Coneygree) and has thrown out four placed runners in 10 years.
Traditionally, the Grade 1 King George VI Chase has been a good trial, but it's last winner was Long Run in 2011. Three runners have been placed since.
The Grade 2 Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham has only produced two placed horses in the past 10 years.
Al Boum Photo has been kept to calmer waters away from the festival. His warm-up race in 2019 and 2020 was the Grade 3 Savills Chase at Tramore on New Year’s Day.

A PLUS TARD (15/2) wins the Savills Chase after a dramatic finish at Leopardstown!

🥈 Kemboy 9/1
🥉 Melon 25/1 pic.twitter.com/3KWw7UcekL
— BetConnect (@betconnect) December 28, 2020

Trainer Trends

Nicky Henderson is the man to follow in the Gold Cup in the last 10 years. He's saddled two winners and four placed horses from just 10 runners. Champ is his big hope in 2021.
No modern trainer has saddled more winners than Paul Nicholls. His last winner was 2009, but he's had placed horses since and remains worth following. Frodon will fly the flag for team Nicholls in 2021.
Willie Mullins’ supporters were in danger of going broke following his Gold Cup runners in the last decade but Al Boum Photo has firmly put the record straight, winning the race in 2019 and 2020.
Like in most races, Gordon Elliott has a good record here, with one winner from five runners in the race.
Ireland has won four of the last seven runnings.

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Jockey Trends

Thanks to Al Boum Photo, Paul Townend is the only current jockey to win the race more than once in recent history.
Nico de Boinville won the race on Coneygree in 2015 and very nearly doubled up on the fast-finishing Santini in 2020. Santini will be back for more again this year.
Richard Johnson steered Native River to success in 2018 and the pair will be out to repeat the trick once again in 2021.

How did the trends do last year?

Al Boum Photo became the first horse to win the race more than once since Best Mate and the 100/30f was a strong trends chance to do so.

His prep race, the same Tramore contest as he had won the previous year, went swimmingly and he very much fit the bill in every respect age and runs-wise.

Runner-up Santini went into the race having won the Cotswold Chase, a key Gold Cup trial.

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Dual Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo returns to the track today at Tramore for his Gold Cup prep...

Should he confirm his well-being his price may well shorten for March, could it pay to back him now?

➡️https://t.co/J85vWbP6tO pic.twitter.com/xy0eRd43Mb
— Geoff Banks Online (@BetGeoffBanks) January 1, 2021

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2021?

Al Boum Photo bids to emulate the great Best Mate and win three successive Gold Cups and his prospects are there for all to see once again. He came through his Tramore prep with flying colours and he’s still only 9-years-old, so he’s still very much at the peak of his powers.

2020 RSA Chase winner Champ is the dark horse of the race but he’s not been seen since so has, at the time of writing, only run in four chases. That lack of match sharpness could prove a major disadvantage in a race as unforgiving as the Gold Cup.

Santini has his knockers but we know the stiff nature of Cheltenham suits him, as he showed when only beaten a neck in 2020, and this 9-year-old could easily step up markedly on what he’s been doing so far this season, although he will need to.

2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup Result

Position	Name	Price	Trainer	Jockey
1st	Al Boum Photo	10/3	Willie Mullins	Paul Townend
2nd	Santini	5/1	Nicky Henderson	Nico de Boinville
3rd	Lostintranslation	10/1	Colin Tizzard	Robbie Power