Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2020 Trends

Trends are the best way to narrow down Cheltenham's tricky handicaps, so we've looked at the most important trends for the Grand Annual Handicap Chase for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2020 running.

Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2020 Trends

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2020 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Were officially rated below 150
  • Had not run more than eight times in the last 12 months
  • Had won on a left-handed track
  • Had won at least twice on a racecourse described as 'galloping'
  • Carried at least 4lbs less than the top weight
  • Featured fourth or lower on the weights list after declarations
  • Last ran at least 28 days ago
  • Were not top weight - just one made the first four

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Were aged between 6-9
  • Had not won more than three chases
  • Had run at least twice that season
  • Had run at Cheltenham before - six winning, four running in a previous Grand Annual
  • Last finished in the first four no more than three starts ago

The last five winners:

  • Were officially rated below 148
  • Last ran more than 90 days ago
  • Had not won any race in the past 12 months
  • Had run in at least three handicaps and nine chases overall
  • Had a handicap rating at least 2lbs lower than their career-high

Key Trials in the last 10 years

Winners of this Cheltenham Festival handicap chase come from all sorts of places, and generally haven't won in that season, so there are no reliable trials to follow.

In the last five years the trends have altered dramatically, moving away from winners having recent runs to instead lining up at the Festival after upwards of three months off.

Handicap chases run at Cheltenham in October, November or December might be a good place to start your research. And don't forget, look back at the last Grand Annual.

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Trainer Trends

  • Named after his father Johnny, Nicky Henderson loves this race. In the last 10 years he's saddled 24 runners, one winning and six placing.
  • Paul Nicholls is the trainer to follow though. He's 2/16 in the last 10 years, with a profit of £21.50 to a £1 stake.

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Jockey Trends

  • In true Cheltenham Festival handicap style, no jockey has won more than one Grand Annual in the last 10 years, but it does tend to go to a professional, over a claiming rider.

How did the trends do last year?

Like everyone else, the trends had no love for 66/1 winner Croco Bay, only the third horse aged more than 10 to win the race in its 73-year history!

He was horribly exposed, with 25 runs over fences and four wins, including in three handicap chases. His rating was the third lowest in the last 10 years, and he hadn't run since July!

The 12-year-old finally landed the prize on his FOURTH run in the Grand Annual. Fair play Croco Bay, trainer Ben Case, and jockey Kielan Woods.

Luckily, if you did follow the trends, they pinpointed second Bun Doran, an eight-year-old one-time chase winner, with course-and-distance form, who hadn't run for 90 days, and the Paul Nicholls-trained Brelan D'As. Also eight, he had won two chases, and no handicaps, but had course handicap form - and the right trainer, obviously.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

Right now, Magic Saint, trained by Paul Nicholls, has the most positives, having won just the four chases, including only two handicaps, and accumulated plenty of chasing experience across his 13 outings over fences.

He was a disappointing 10th in the race last year when the 9/2 favourite and aged only five, but lacked chasing experience then, and had only run in two handicaps. The last five winners have run in at least nine chases, including three handicaps.

Could this be his year?


2019 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stCroco Bay66/1Ben CaseKielan Woods
2ndBun Doran11/1Tom GeorgePaddy Brennan
3rdBrelan D'As8/1Paul NichollsBryony Frost
4thForest Bihan33/1Brian EllisonDanny Cook

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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