Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2022 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2022 edition of the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of this ultra-competitive two-mile handicap.

Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2022 Trends
Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2022 Trends

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2022 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Were not top weight - just one made the first four
  • Had not run more than eight times in the last 12 months
  • Had won at least twice on a racecourse described as 'galloping'
  • Featured fourth or lower on the weights list after declarations
  • Had won on a left-handed track

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Were aged 6-9
  • Carried no more than 11st 6lb
  • Had not won more than three chases
  • Had run at least twice that season
  • Had run in either a Grade 1 or 2 race previously
  • Had run at Cheltenham before - six winning, three running in a previous Grand Annual
  • Last ran at least 28 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Were NOT sent off favourite on the day (six of the last ten winners 14/1+)
  • Did not win last time out - seven had not even won that season.

Key Trials in the last 10 years

Winners of this Cheltenham Festival handicap chase come from all sorts of places, and generally haven't won in that season, so there are no reliable trials to follow. This is because connections tend not to want to show their hand to the assessor.

In the last six years the trends have altered dramatically, moving away from winners having recent runs to instead lining up at the Festival after upwards of three months off. 2020 winner Chosen Mate was returning from a 50-day lay-off.

Handicap chases run at Cheltenham in October, November or December might be a good place to start your research. And don't forget, look back at the last Grand Annual (Croco Bay, winner in 2019, was running in the race for the fourth time), although no horse has won the race more than once since Dulwich in 1976.


Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.


Trainer Trends

  • Named after his father Johnny, Nicky Henderson loves this race. In the last 10 years he's saddled 22 runners, one winning and six placing. Theinval finished fifth in 2020 at 50/1.
  • However, Paul Nicholls is the trainer to follow – he’s won this race four times in all, more than any other trainer, including twice in the last 10 years.
  • Trainers based in Irelad have their fair share of good fortune in this race, winning four of the last 10.

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Jockey Trends

  • In true Cheltenham Festival handicap style, this isn’t a race that tends to be dominated by a small group of riders.
  • Only Davy Russell has won the Grand Annual more than once in the last 10 years, but it does tend to go to a professional, rather than a claiming rider.

How did the trends do last year?

Sky Pirate was not a solid trends pick. With 11st 6lb and a lofty rating of 152, he looked too exposed. He had also won twice that season, when most winners have not even won once in the last 12 months.

Aged nine and boasting a previous Cheltenham win and a Grade 2 placing, he did fit the bill in other areas. He had also not won more than three chases, which is key, and had not run more than eight times in the last 12 months, and was lining up after a break of more than 28 days He'd also won twice on courses described as 'galloping'.

The short-head second Entoucas had a better weight at 10st 11lb and no win that season. But he was hard to pick on trends having never won any chase, and only won one hurdle - albeit on a galloping, left-handed track.


Who Fits The Trends Best In 2022?

Brave Seasca heads ante-post betting lists for the Grand Annual Chase but he’s only run four times over fences and has gone from 121 to 145 already this season. He's also only won once on a galloping track and looks far too exposed and inexperienced.

The Sam Thomas-trained Before Midnight fits the trends better, boasting 11 chase outings, including only three wins, and two of those came in handicaps on left-handed tracks described as galloping.

He beat last year's winner Sky Pirate well at Cheltenham in October - albeit carrying 23lbs less -and has since gained Grade 2 experience at Wetherby.

From Ireland, the Jessica Harrington-trained Exit Poll looks interesting with 12 chase runs and three wins, including a Grade 3 novice chase and handicap at Kilbeggan. He won his first chase at left-handed, galloping track Leopardstown and his only run this season was second off topweight in a 2m1f handicap back at that track, where he was beaten 3.75 lengths by a horse carrying 22lbs less.

Although none of the above are, horses owned by JP McManus are worth examination in the Grand Annual as he's had four winners, four seconds and a third. Leading his pack currently are Gentleman De Mee and Thedevilscoachman.


2021 Grand Annual Handicap Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stSky Pirate14/1Jonjo O'NeillNick Schofield
2ndEntoucas7/1Joseph O'BrienMark Walsh
3rdIbleo9/1Venetia WilliamsCharlie Deutsch
4thOn The Slopes16/1Chris GordonTom Cannon


Cheltenham Festival 2022 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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