Kim Muir Handicap Chase 2022 Trends

Trends are the best place to start when trying to narrow down a tricky Cheltenham Festival handicap field! So we've taken a look at the most important Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends for you, and used them to find you the best horses to follow right now for the 2022 running.

Kim Muir Handicap Chase 2022 Trends
Kim Muir Handicap Chase 2022 Trends

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Need some help finding the winner of the 2022 edition of the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of this competitive staying chase for amateur riders.

2022 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Did not win last time out - the last five had placed
  • Had won no more than three chases overall, if any
  • Had won no more than two handicap chases, if any
  • Had finished in the first three no more than four runs ago
  • Were not French-bred - only three placed out of more than 40 runners

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Carried 11st 4lbs or more (exception Same Difference carried 11st)
  • Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both in the race (exception Sunnyhillboy)
  • Were not older than nine years (exception 12-year-old The Package)
  • Had run in at least five chases overall (exception Mount Ida ran in three)
  • Had run over 3m or further at least once (exception Mount Ida)
  • Last ran no more than 76 days ago (exception The Package)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Had never won a Graded race
  • Had not won any race that season

Key Trials in the last 10 years

With Cheltenham's handicaps, it's often better to look down the field in the popular trials, rather than at the winner, but we've given you the winners below as a guide.

  • The Grade B Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival has produced three of the last 10 winners (Any Second Now and Spring Heeled) and five placed horses. School Boy Hours won this in 2021, beating Ben Dundee.
  • The Grade B Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick's Christmas Festival has produced one winner (Domesday Book) and one placed finisher. Spyglass Hill won the 2021 renewal, beating Rebel Gold.
  • In 2018 Missed Approach used Warwick's Classic Chase as a springboard to Kim Muir vicory. This had also been contested by 2008 winner High Chimes. Eclair Surf won this in 2022, beating Gericault Roque.
  • 2020 winner Milan Native was stepping up markedly in trip at the festival having stuck to his task when second in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park the previous month. 2021 winner Mount Ida was also a novice.


Trainer Trends

  • In the last 11 years David Pipe has saddled 24 runners in the Kim Muir, saddling two winners and two placed horses. He loves this race and is always worth following.
  • Gordon Elliott is emerging as a trainer to follow, too. Elliott has landed two of the last six editions as well as saddling four placed horses.
  • Nigel Twiston-Davies' 15 runners have yielded a winner and two placed runners.
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race three times but his last victory came back in 2005.

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Jockey Trends

This race is confined to amateur riders, though professionals rode all the 2021 runners due to pandemic restrictions placed on amateur sports people.

  • Jamie Codd has won four of the last 12 runnings of the Kim Muir, for three different trainers. There's no doubt the horse he chooses is to be respected.

How did the trends do last year?

This race can often go to a horse that hasn’t yet shown his hand to the assessor over staying trips and Milan Native was a good example in 2020, followed by an even less exposed winner in 2021 in Mount Ida.

The big negative for trends followers was her lack of experience as she'd only run in three chases, all confined to mares and producing small fields. She'd also never run over further than 2m4f over fences, apart from when winning a point-to-point aged four.

She was favourite off the strength of her stable, Cullentra House's form in the race


Who Fits The Trends Best In 2022?

This is among the trickiest Cheltenham handicaps to predict this far out, but of those at the head of the betting, the horse best fitting the trends is the Enda Bolger-trained Birchdale.

The eight-year-old is a maiden after eight chase outings, including finishing sixth in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over 3m at Christmas. That was his second handicap chase outing, and he finished sixth last year in the 2m5f Coral Cup over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.

The only current negative is that his handicap rating of 129 is too low to get into the Kim Muir, but he holds an entry at Leopardstown in February which may help if he runs well.

Cat Tiger also stands out when applying trends. He has six chase wins, but four of these came in France when he was four. After a hunter chase campaign last season, he's switched to handicap chases this term, with a fifth at Aintree, second at Doncaster and win at Ascot.

Grand Paradis, a maiden after four runs over fences, is currently Gordon Elliott's leading hope, according to the betting.


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2021 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stMount Ida3/1fDenise FosterJack Kennedy
2ndCloudy Glen33/1Venetia WilliamsRobert Dunne
3rdShantou Flyer11/2Paul NichollsHarry Cobden

Cheltenham Festival 2022 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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