Marsh Novices' Chase 2021 Trends

Certain trends can help you find a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, and in the Marsh Novices' Chase we've found some really strong ones. We have taken a look at the most important trends from this race's nine runnings for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now in the 2021 Marsh Novices' Chase.

Marsh Novices' Chase 2021 Trends

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2021 Marsh Novices' Chase Trends


Nine of the last ten winners:

  • Aged between 6 or 7
  • Were officially rated 144+
  • Won one of their last three runs
  • Had won on a left-handed course
  • Had run in two to five novice chases
  • Had three or more wins on a galloping track
  • Last ran in a Graded novice chase

Eight of the last nine winners:

  • Were Irish or French-bred
  • Last ran less than 60 days ago
  • No bigger than 4/1 on the day
  • Won, or were beaten no more than a short-head, last time out

 

Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • Five of this race's nine winners last ran in a Graded novice chase at Leopardstown in January or February (Yorkhill, Vautour, Sir Des Champs, Benefficient & Noble Prince). Presently, the two options are the Irish Arkle and Flogas Novice Chase.
  • The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase has thrown up one winner in the last nine years (Defi Du Seuil), but it has also produced five seconds and thirds (Lostintranslation, Terrefort, Top Notch, Bristol De Mai & Changing Times).
  • The Neville Hotels Novices Chase at Leopardstown has also thrown up one winner in the last nine years (Shattered Love).


Trainer Trends

  • With 4 winners, Willie Mullins has dominated the Marsh Novices' Chase and he very nearly made it five with Melon, who was beaten a nose in 2020.
  • Jonjo O'Neill and Philip Hobbs are the only Britain-based trainers to have won the race, though Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson have saddled six placed horses between them.
  • In the ten-year history of the race, the prize has gone to Ireland on eight occasions.


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Jockey Trends

  • With Willie Mullins having such a good record in this race, it obviously pays to focus on his regular big-race riders. Paul Townend and Patrick Mullins, who filled the places in 2020, will no doubt be opening their Marsh Novices’ Chase accounts soon.

How did the trends do last year?

Samcro became the first 8-year-old to win the Marsh Novices’ Chase, pipping the Willie Mullins’ pair of Melon and Faugheen. Samcro had also not run in the last 60 days and had been beaten ten lengths when last seen, so he wasn’t an obvious trends winner of the race, for all that he was strong in the market on the day.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2021?

Envoi Allen is a red-hot ante-post favourite in 2020 Marsh Chase betting lists and it’s easy to see why. Unbeaten in 11 career starts going into the race, he very much fits the bill on the main trends and many seen him as the banker of the entire meeting. He already has two Cheltenham Festival wins to his name so there are no doubts about his ability to show his best form at the track.

Dan Skelton has yet to train a Marsh Chase winner but Shan Blue will be his best chance if connections decide to take Envoi Allen on. Sham Blue was a clear-cut winner of the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, taking his chasing record to three wins from three starts. The downside to his chance is that he was 27 lengths behind Envoi Allen in last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.


2020 Marsh Novices' Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stSamcro4/1Gordon ElliottDavy Russell
2ndMelon14/1W P MullinsMr P W Mullins
3rdFaugheen3/1W P MullinsPaul Townend

Cheltenham Festival 2021 Trends

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