Marsh Novices' Chase 2020 Trends

Certain trends can help you find a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, and in the Marsh Novices' Chase we've found some really strong ones. We have taken a look at the most important trends from this race's nine runnings for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now in the 2020 Marsh Novices' Chase.

26th January 2020 | By: Jessica Lamb

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2020 Marsh Novices' Chase Trends

The only nine winners:

Aged between 6 or 7
Were officially rated 144+
Won one of their last three runs
Had won on a left-handed course
Had run in two to five novice chases
Had three or more wins on a galloping track
Last ran in a Graded novice chase

Eight of the last nine winners:

Were Irish or French-bred
Last ran less than 60 days ago
Won, or were beaten no more than a short-head, last time out

Key Trials from the last nine years

Five of this race's nine winners last ran in a Graded novice chase at Leopardstown in January or February (Yorkhill, Vautour, Sir Des Champs, Benefficient & Noble Prince). Presently, the two options are the Irish Arkle and Flogas Novice Chase. Notebook won the Irish Arkle and Faugheen won the Flogas.
The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase has thrown up one winner in the last nine years (Defi Du Seuil), but it has also produced five seconds and thirds (Lostintranslation, Terrefort, Top Notch, Bristol De Mai & Changing Times). The 2020 running was taken by Itchy Feet.
The Neville Hotels Novices Chase at Leopardstown has also thrown up one winner in the last nine years (Shattered Love) Battleoverdoyen won this trial in 2019.

1/111P-111

Battleoverdoyen is now an unbeaten Grade 1 winner over fences, denying Champagne Classic in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase at @LeopardstownRC @gelliott_racing

Results ➡ https://t.co/glajGV55GR pic.twitter.com/mty5NSliki
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 29, 2019

Trainer Trends

With 4 winners, Willie Mullins has dominated the Marsh Novices' Chase. No other trainer has saddled more than one winner.
Jonjo O'Neill and Philip Hobbs are the only Britain-based trainers to have won the race, though Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson have saddled six placed horses between them.
Ireland has had 7 of the past 9 winners.

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Jockey Trends

Ruby Walsh rode three winners in the last 9 years so he was obviously worth following before his retirement. All of these winners were for Willie Mullins, so with Paul Townend taking over that position, he looks the man to follow.
Barry Geraghty rode his first Marsh Novices' Chase winner in 2018 with Defi Du Seuil.

How did the trends do last year?

Shortlisted via the Marsh Novices' Chase trends last year were Pravalaguna, Defi Du Seuil, and Lostintranslation - the latter two filling the first two places in the the Cheltenham Festival's newest Grade 1 chase.

They ticked all the key trends, though Pravalaguna was weakest having not met the requirement of havinglast run in a Graded race - her last run was winning a Listed chase.

Defi Du Seuil makes no mistake to win the JLT Novices’ Chase at @CheltenhamRaces

Watch the #CheltenhamFestival LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/le9C7mk5az
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 14, 2019

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

At the moment Mister Fisher has the most positives heading into the 2020 Marsh Novices' Chase. He is the right age, has the right official rating, and has already run in two chases, including winning at Cheltenham last time out.

Itchy Feet also comes out well after winning an apt trial last time.