Turners Novices' Chase 2022 Trends

Certain trends can help you find a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, and in the Turners Novices' Chase we've found some really strong ones. We have taken a look at the most important trends from this race's 10 runnings for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now in the 2022 Turners Novices' Chase.

| By: Jessica Lamb
Turners Novices' Chase 2022 Trends
Turners Novices' Chase 2022 Trends

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2022 Turners Novices' Chase Trends


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The last 10 winners

  • Last ran at least 30 days ago
  • Won one of their last three starts
  • Had three to five starts that season
  • Had run in two to five novice chases
  • Had won on a left-handed course
  • Had three or more wins on a galloping track
  • Had run at Cheltenham before - seven winning
  • Had won at least once racing over a distance between 2m3f-2m6f

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Aged six or seven
  • Last ran in a Graded novice chase (exception Chantry House)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Last ran less than 60 days ago
  • No bigger than 4/1 on the day
  • Won, or were beaten no more than a short-head, last time out

Watch the #Racehour Turners Novices' Chase Preview

Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • Five of this race's 11 winners last ran in a Graded novice chase at Leopardstown in January or February (Yorkhill, Vautour, Sir Des Champs, Benefficient and Noble Prince), and that applies to an additional six placed horses (Faugheen, Disko, Apache Stronghold, Melon, Mengli Khan and Asterion Forlonge). Presently, the two options are the Irish Arkle and Flogas Novice Chase.
  • The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase has thrown up one winner in the last 10 years (Defi Du Seuil), but it has also produced five seconds and thirds (Lostintranslation, Terrefort, Top Notch, Bristol De Mai and Changing Times).

Trainer Trends

  • With four winners, Willie Mullins has dominated the Turners Novices' Chase and he very nearly made it five with Melon, who was beaten a nose in 2020.
  • Jonjo O'Neill, Philip Hobbs and Nicky Henderson are the only Britain-based trainers to have won the race, though Nigel Twiston-Davies and Henderson have saddled six placed horses between them.
  • In the 11-year history of the race, the prize has gone to Ireland on eight occasions.

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Jockey Trends

  • With Willie Mullins having such a good record in this race, it obviously pays to focus on his regular big-race riders.
  • Davy Russell has won the race twice on Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners.

How did the trends do last year?

Chantry House's victory was a first ever defeat for two-time Cheltenham Festival winner Envoi Allen, who exited at the fourth fence as the 4-9 favourite. With his Cheltenham form, a substantial 60 day break, and three wins in novice chases, he was a strong trends selection.

The winner was a good trends fit too, though with weaker form. He had Cheltenham experience, a break of 30 days since his las run, and had won two of his three chases. He had won three times on galloping tracks too.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2022?

After the key trials at Leopardstown, Henry De Bromhead's Bob Olinger, winner of last year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the Festival, stills heads the betting on the strength of his Grade 3 novices chase win at Punchestown in January.

Typically the winner of this race would have run more than twice in that season, but other than that he's a rock solid choice. He is not set to run again before Cheltenham, but at Leopardstown's Dublin Racing Festival Galopin Des Champs emerged as his leading challenger.

He won the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase by nine lengths for trainer Willie Mullins, making him 2/2 over fences, both at Leopardstown over 2m5f and by wide margins.

He's also a Grade 1 winner over hurdles over 3m and won last year's Martin Pipe Conditional jockeys' Handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival when stepped up toe 2m4f for the first time.

2021 Turners Novices' Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stChantry House9/1Nicky HendersonNico De Boinville
2ndFusil Raffles14/1Nicky HendersonDaryl Jacob
3rdAsterion Forlonge14/1Willie MullinsPaul Townend

Cheltenham Festival 2022 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends

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All odds were correct when posted.