National Hunt Novices' Chase 2021 Trends

The best way to narrow down the field in the National Hunt Novices' Chase is by analysing the race trends. So we've looked at the most important trends for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2021 running of the Cheltenham Festival's longest race.

National Hunt Novices' Chase 2021 Trends

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2021 National Hunt Novices' Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Had run at least three times over fences
  • Had run in a chase over at least 3m before - eight winning at least once
  • Had run at least twice that season, and four times in the past 12 months
  • Had won a hurdle race

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Were officially rated at least 139

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Last ran in a race no more than 78 days ago

Key Trials in the last 10 years

The are no standout trials for the National Hunt Novices' Chase, mainly due to it being such a long race at 3m6f. However, it pays to follow Grade 3 novices' chases run over 2m4f-3m in January and February.

Look for horses in those races that did not win, but were placed or ran well. 2019 winner Le Breuil, for example, finished fourth in the Grade 2 Altcar Novices' Chase over 2m4f at Haydock, on his last run before Cheltenham Festival success.

Lord Du Mesnil proved his stamina for the National Hunt Chase by running second in Haydock’s Grand National Trial in 2020. He went on to finish second at Prestbury Park, behind Ravenhill, whose road to Cheltenham was unusual in that he had fallen in the normally ultra-competitive Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan November and not been seen in between.


Trainer Trends

  • Gordon Elliott is a master in this contest, winning the race four times since 2011. Interestingly, he’s never had a placed horse in the race - it's all or nothing.
  • Willie Mullins has saddled two winners and three placed horses from 15 runners in the past 10 years. He was expected to collect again in 2020 but odds-on favourite Carefully Selected was beaten when unseating his rider at the final fence.
  • Trainer Alan King is also worth keeping an eye on. He's had one winner and one placed horse from seven runners in the past 10 years.
  • Jonjo O’Neill is the race’s winning-most trainer (5) but he’s only landed it once (Minella Rocco in 2016) since 2007.

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    Jockey Trends

    • This race is restricted to amateur riders. Jamie Codd stands alone as being the only pilot to have scored on three occasions in this famous race. He has won the last two and is always regarded as a significant booking.
    • Derek O’Connor and Patrick Mullins have won it twice and the latter was expected to make it three given he appeared to have the plum ride aboard the odds-on favourite in 2020.

    How did the trends do last year?

    They have had better years. Ravenhill’s lack of a recent run may well have put many off. He fell in a hot handicap chase in November of that season and wasn’t seen again until the National Hunt Chase on March 10.

    The other potential negative was his age. Ravenhill was only the third 10-year-old to win the race this century, and only the fourth since 1980.

    Runner-up Lord Du Mesnil had a very strong trends profile going into the race. A guaranteed stayer, he had the highest official rating going into the race and he rewarded each-way support.



    Who Fits The Trends Best In 2021?

    Galvin would be an outstanding trends candidate for the 2021 National Hunt Chase were it not for the fact that he hasn’t been seen since October 23.

    He’s the right age, he’s already got strong Cheltenham Festival form in the book having finished second to Imperial Aura in last year’s Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase, and he’s since come out and won a Grade 3 staying chase at Prestbury Park.

    Royal Pagaille has looked a really progressive chaser since joining Venetia Williams and he fits many of the key trends but he has no experience of Cheltenham, while most of his form to this point has come on really testing ground, which he may not get at Cheltenham in the spring.

    Paul Nicholls has never won this race but he would have a great chance of breaking his duck if deciding to head to here rather than the RSA Chase with unbeaten chaser Next Destination, who has won two Grade 2 novice chases this season. He is a 9-year-old, so older than many winners of this race, but he’s lightly raced for his age having had just 11 starts under all codes.

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    2020 National Hunt Novices' Chase Result

    PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
    1stRavenhill12/1Gordon ElliottMr J J Codd
    2ndLord Du Mesnil 11/2Richard HobsonSam Waley-Cohen
    3rdLamanver Pippin33/1 J A NashMr Derek O’Connor

    Cheltenham Festival 2021 Trends

    Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

    Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

    Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

    Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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      In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.