National Hunt Novices' Chase 2020 Trends

The best way to narrow down the field in the National Hunt Novices' Chase is by analysing the race trends. So we've looked at the most important trends for you, and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2020 running of the Cheltenham Festival's longest race.

National Hunt Novices' Chase 2020 Trends

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2020 National Hunt Novices' Chase Trends


The last 10 winners:

  • Had run at least three times over fences
  • Had run in a chase over at least 3m before - eight winning at least once
  • Had run at least twice that season, and four times in the past 12 months
  • Had won a hurdle race

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Were officially rated at least 139
  • Last ran in a race no more than 78 days ago

Eight of the last 10 winners:

  • Had won a chase before
  • Had run at Cheltenham before
  • Were aged between 6-8

Key Trials in the last 10 years

The are no clear trial for the National Hunt Novices' Chase, mainly due to it being such a long race at 3m6f. However, it pays to follow Grade 3 and Grade 3 novices' chases run over 2m4f-3m in January and February.

Look for horses in those races that did not win, but were placed or ran well. Last year's winner Le Breuil, for example finished fourth in the Grade 2 Altcar Novices' Chase over 2m4f at Haydock, on his last run before Cheltenham Festival success.

Sam Brown won that race in 2020, Knight In Dubai finishing second, with Joke Dancer in third.


Trainer Trends

  • Gordon Elliott is a master in this chase, winning with three of his eight runners. That's a 38% strike rate, and interestingly, he's never had a placed horse; it's win or nothing!
  • Willie Mullins has saddled two winners and three placed horses from 14 runners in the past 10 years. He's got Carefully Selected this year, set to be ridden by son Patrick Mullins
  • Trainer Alan King is also worth keeping an eye on. He's had one winner and one placed horse from seven runners in the past 10 years.

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Jockey Trends

  • Patrick Mullins is bidding this year to become the first rider to win the National Hunt Chase three times. He's presently on Carefully Selected.
  • Jamie Codd and Derek O'Connor have also won the race twice, and are likely to be involved again.

How did the trends do last year?

Trends could not have winner Le Breuil as his stamina was so unproven, even though the booking of Jamie Codd was seriously eyecatching.

There were however unlimited positives for second Discorama, who ticked every trends box available, the only negative in his form being that he had fallen last time out.



Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

At the moment, Champagne Classic has the most positives in the National Hunt Chase trends, having won over 2m7f and been second in a Grade 1 and Grade 2 novices' chase over 3m.

He also won the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, and has the most chasing experience of any of the top five in the betting, having run five times.

Recent Wetherby Grade 2 winner Two For Gold also hits a lot of trends though, and there's still time for leading rivals Carefully Selected and Danny Whizzbang to gain the necessary chasing experience.

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2019 National Hunt Novices' Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stLe Breuil14/1Ben PaulingMr Jamie Codd
2ndDiscorama9/2Paul NolanMr Barry O'Neill
3rdJerrysback16/1Philip HobbsMr Declan Lavery

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends


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