Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2022 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2022 edition of the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last t0 renewals in order to help you find the winner.

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2022 Trends
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2022 Trends

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2022 Cheltenham Festival Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends


The last 10 winners

  • Were not bred in France (French-breds are 0/27)
  • Had run in 2-5 novice chases
  • Had run in a Graded race
  • Had two or more wins on a galloping track
  • Last ran no more than 77 days ago, the majority last running within 39 days

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • Won, or were beaten no more than 3 lengths, last time out
  • Had won over at least 3m before; 8/10 winning over fences
  • Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase
  • Had run at Cheltenham before, 6/10 winning
  • Had won on a left-handed track

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Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • Three winners in the last 10 years had won the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown (Lord Windermere, Bostons Angel, Monkfish). 2018 Flogas winner Monalee was placed and a further four Ladbrokes runners went on to be placed in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase in 2021, 2017, 2013 and 2012.
  • Two winners of the Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival have gone on to win the Brown Advisory - Monkfish and Don Poli - with a further four runners in that race going on to place in 2021, 2019, 2014 and 2012. The 2021 winner was Fury Road.
  • Ascot's Grade 1 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase is another worth keeping an eye on as winner Ofaolains Boy and runner-up Bobs Worth went on to win this Cheltenham race.

Trainer Trends

  • Willie Mullins has two saddled two winners and four placed horses from 16 runners in the past 10 years and overall is the race's winning-most trainer with five winners.
  • Nicky Henderson has three wins and three placings from just 11 runners in the past 10 years. If you'd put £1 on all 11 runners you'd be up £4.00. He has saddled four winners in his career.
  • Paul Nicholls has a winner and one placing from nine runners in the past 10 runnings, but overall has three winners.
  • Gordon Elliott is currently 0/4 in this race, but one of those four did place.

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Jockey Trends

  • The jockey riding at the moment with the most wins in this event is Davy Russell, with three victories, all for different Ireland-based trainers. He's had five other rides in the race and none finished worse than fourth, with three finishing second or third.

How did the trends do last year?

With an official handicap rating of 164 and wide-margin wins in two of this race's best trials, Monkfish stood, literally, head and shoulders above his five rivals, and he proved his dominance with a facile six and a half length win.

Sporting John, the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase winner, was the field's only other Grade 1 chase winner, but that win was his only one over fences, and his only other run on a left-handed course was a distant defeat in the previous season's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.


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Who Fits The Trends Best In 2022?

With this race's best trial the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown yet to run, Neville Hotels Novice Chase winner Fury Road, who won by a cool eight lengths.

Wide-margin Leopardstown beginners' chase winner Galopin Des Champs appears Willie Mullins's first string, but it's interesting to note the trends show that only two French-breds who in the last 20 years have won this race, and none since Star De Mohaison in 2006.

A total of 27 French-bred have run in the last 10 years and all were beaten. Some of the defeated include Delta Work and the 2021 Ryanair Chase winner Allaho.

It could pay to follow his Fairyhouse winner Jungle Boogie instead, although he's yet to win left-handed. The Ladbrokes Novice Chase, in which he, Fury Road and Galopin Des Champs are entered, along with Ballymore Novices' Hurdle winner Bob Olinger, will be telling in February.

2021 RSA Novices' Chase Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stMonkfish1/4fWillie MullinsPaul Townend
2ndFiddlerontheroof40/1Colin TizzardRobbie Power
3rdThe Big Breakaway12/1Colin TizzardHarry Cobden

Cheltenham Festival 2022 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

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