Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2021 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2021 edition of the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last ten renewals in order to help you find the winner of this hotly-contested handicap.

1st March 2021 | By: Gavin Beech

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2021 Cheltenham Festival Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase Trends

The last 10 winners:

Had won no more than five chases
Were running off a career-high handicap rating - or no more than 3lbs lower
Finished first or second in at least one of their last three races
Last ran in a novice chase or handicap chase
Had won on a course described as galloping

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Carried at least 5lbs less than the top weight
Had won no more than two handicap chases, three winning none
Finished in the first two last time out
Had won over at least 2m3f over fences

Eight of the last 10 winners:

Last ran no more than 70 days ago
Had never won at Cheltenham before
Had won over fences on a left-handed track
Were carrying less than 11st

Key Trials from the last 10 years

With Cheltenham's handicaps, it often pays to look down the field in the popular trials, rather than at the winner, but we've given you the winners below as a guide.
2019 winner Siruh Du Lac used what is now the Grade 3 Paddy Power Trophy Handicap Chase at Cheltenham as a springboard to Festival Plate success.
2019 runner-up Janika also ran in that race, along with three other placed finishers in the last 10 years.
The BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham has also proven a useful trial, with one winner (Ballynagour) and four placed finishers in the past 10 years.
2020 winner Simply The Betts won a really competitive novices’ handicap over the same C&D in January, form which worked out superbly at the festival with runner-up Imperial Aura winning another of the meeting’s big handicap chases.
Any Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham run over 2m4f-2m5f - just like the ones above - is a great trial for this race. Another to watch is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, with one winner and five placed-finishers in 10 years.

Trainer Trends

Nicky Henderson has won this race four times and leads the way among those still operating. However, the last of those came in 2006.
David Pipe has followed in his father’s footsteps by building a strong record in this contest, winning it three times since 2010, which leaves him just one shy of his father. David Pipe has also saddled four placed horses, most recently Eamon An Cnoic who was 4th in 2019.
Gordon Elliott has only had a handful of runners in the race but he’s registered a winner, a place and a fifth in 2020.

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Jockey Trends

Bryan Cooper and Tom Scudamore have both won the race twice in the last decade.
Cooper’s victories have come in the last five editions and on both occasions, he was carrying the colours of major owners Gigginstown House Stud.
Scudamore was aboard two of David Pipe’s three winners, the last of which came in 2014.
Richard Johnson’s two wins in the race came in 2000 and 2003.

How did the trends do last year?

Having one a red-hot handicap chase over the same course and distance on his last start, Simply The Betts brought a rock-solid profile into the race despite the burden of a 9lb higher mark. That strong course form proved crucial and he toughed it out up the hill to see off the admirable mare Happy Diva.

The market didn’t miss the winner but his form chance had been boost by Imperial Aura, who he beat in January, winning a hot handicap earlier in the week.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2021?

Ante-post lists for the 2021 edition of this race are dominated by three J P McManus-owned horses – Dickie Diver, Chantry House (both trained by Nicky Henderson) and Andy Dufresne (Gordon Elliott).

The last named, for a trainer with a good recent record in this race, looks a progressive chaser who has won both starts this term in eye-catching style. The issue for him is that he’s yet to win a chase over further than 2m1f, although he has won over a hurdles race over 2m4f, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue. If he runs, he is highly likely to be carrying more than 11st given his rating.

Chantry House was third behind Shishkin in the 2020 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle so is a classy recruit to chasing but he fluffed his lines badly back at Prestbury Park in December and hasn’t been seen since.

Dickie Diver, fourth in last year’s Albert Bartlett, is completely unexposed over fences but he failed to win his only chase start so lacks experience at this stage. He also has the option of going up in trip for the National Hunt Chase.

2020 RSA Novices' Chase Result

Position	Name	Price	Trainer	Jockey
1st	Simply The Betts	100/30f	Harry Whittington	Gavin Sheehan
2nd	Happy Diva	20/1	Kerry Lee	Richard Fitzpatrick
3rd	Mister Whitaker	22/1	Mick Channon	A P Heskin

Cheltenham Festival 2021 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends

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