Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2021 Trends

As with the majority of races at the Cheltenham Festival, there are some very strong trends that can help punters to find the winner. Our horse racing experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have taken a look at the most important pointers from the last 10 years which will help you find the best horse to follow in the 2021 renewal of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

10th February 2021 | By: Gavin Beech

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2021 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2021 edition of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last ten renewals in order to help you find the winner of the Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser.

The last 10 winners:

5 or 6 years old.
Five or less novice hurdle runs.
Between 2 and 5 runs that campaign.
Took part in a novice hurdle last time, not a handicap.
Last run within 80 days of the Supreme.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Rated 142 or better.
Winner of at least one of previous three outings.
Victorious on a left-handed track.
Finished either first or second on previous run.

Key Trials from the last 10 years

The Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, known previously as the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, has always been regarded as one of the most important pointers to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle because it clarifies the pecking order among the top Irish novices.
The Grade 1 contest, which takes place at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in early February, has been the springboard to Cheltenham Festival success for the likes of Klassical Dream (2019), Vautour (2014) and Champagne Fever (2013) in recent years, while last year's winner Asterion Forlonge was sent off the 9/4f for the Supreme the following month (finished 4th).
The Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle has traditionally been a reasonable trial with one winner (Douvan, 2015) and four places from the last 10 years.
The Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown has been disappointing in respect to the Cheltenham Festival, with no winner graduating to Supreme Novice Hurdle glory. However, 2019 winner Abacadabras came very close to ending the drought when narrowly denied by Shishkin.
The only Grade 1 race over 2m for novices run in the UK before Cheltenham is the Tolworth Hurdle but it has only thrown up one winner of the Supreme in the last ten years - Summerville Boy in 2015. 2020 Tolworth winner Fiddlerontheroof proved most disappointing in the Supreme, trailing in 11th despite going off the same price as the winner, Shishkin.
The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle have had plenty of places between them in the Supreme, but neither have thrown up the winner.

⭐ Another @WillieMullinsNH star! ⭐

APPRECIATE IT makes it 3️⃣ from 3️⃣ over hurdles as he strikes in the Grade 1 @Chanelle_Pharma Novice Hurdle 🤩@PTowned powers the top-class prospect home in front 💪#DublinRacingFestival pic.twitter.com/qN9lNCW9c0
— Leopardstown RC (@LeopardstownRC) February 7, 2021

Trainer Trends

Four of the last eight winners have been trained by Willie Mullins, most recently with 2019 victor Klassical Dream. Mullins has won the Supreme six times, more than any other trainer.
Nicky Henderson is another trainer to note with two winners in the last ten years and his representatives usually perform admirably. Just over half of his runners (11 of 21) have finished in the first three in the last 10 years, a stat bolstered by both Shishkin (1st) and Chantry House (3rd) in 2020.
Gordon Elliott's runners are maybe worth nothing in this contest also with a winner (Labaik) and three places from only seven runners in the last 10 years.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has never quite mastered the Supreme with no winners or places from nine runners in the race.

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Jockey Trends

All of Willie Mullins’ winners in the last ten years have been ridden by his number one stable jockey (Ruby Walsh up until 2019) so pay close attention to the chosen mount of current number one, Paul Townend. At this stage it is very difficult to see him riding anything other than Appreciate It.
Nico de Boinville has the best recent record in the race with two wins, both on Nicky Henderson-trained horses, in the last five years.
Jack Kennedy also has a good recent record in the race with a winner and two places from three starts. .
This is one of the rare races where Davy Russell has a relatively poor record although he almost broke his duck last year aboard Abacadabras. That was just his second Supreme placing in the last ten years.

How did the trends do last year?

Shishkin very much had the profile of a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner. He was the right age, had run an appropriate number of times and in the right races, and is trained by a man with a strong record in the race. Shishkin was a notable market drifter on the day but he overcame that and significant trouble in running to edge out Abacadabras, a Grade 1 winner from Ireland, in a thrilling finish.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

Shishkin win the G1 Supreme Novice Hurdle#CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/czg2B414qc
— Horse Racing Global (@HorseRacingGL) March 10, 2020

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2021?

Appreciate It looks the best novice hurdler in Ireland this season and deservedly heads the 2021 ante-post market. He looked irresistible when storming nine lengths clear in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas and he is trained by Willie Mullins, who has such an enviable record in the Supreme.

One note of caution with him though – he is a seven-year-old, and only one horse of that age has won the Supreme this century (Captain Cee Bee in 2008).