Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2020 Trends

As with the majority of races at the Cheltenham Festival, there are some very strong trends that can help punters to find the winner. Our horse racing experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have taken a look at the most important pointers from the last 10 years which will help you find the best horse to follow in the 2020 renewal of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

26th January 2020 | By: Diarmuid Nolan

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2020 Cheltenham Supreme Novices Trends

The last 10 winners:

5 or 6 years old.
Five or less novice hurdle runs.
Between 2 and 5 runs that campaign.
Took part in a novice hurdle last time, not a handicap.
Last run within 80 days of the Supreme.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

Rated 142 or better.
At least 1 win in previous 3 starts.
Victorious on a left-handed track.
Finished either first or second on previous run. (Exception was Labaik).

Key Trials from the last 10 years

The Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Discontinued) at Leopardstown had thrown up the most winners in the last 10 years here with Vautour and Champagne Classic using that race as a stepping stone to Prestbury Park success.
The Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle has traditionally been a good trial with 1 winner (Douvan) and 4 places from the last 10 years. Andy Dufresne won this in 2019.
The Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival (Klassical Dream) & the Slaney Novice Hurdle (Labaik) has thrown up 1 winner respectively in the last 10 years. Asterion Forlonge won this in 2020.
The Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown has been disappointing in respect to the Cheltenham Festival, with no winner graduating to Supreme Novice Hurdle glory. Abacadabras won this in 2019.
In the UK, the Tolworth Novices' Hurdle has had a winner (Summerville Boy) and a place in the last 10 years. Fiddlerontheroof won this in 2020.
The Dovecote Novices Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle have had plenty of places between them in the Supreme, but neither have thrown up the winner.

Lovely prospect - £200,000 buy Fiddlerontheroof trots up and looks an exciting one for @colintizzard and @Robbie_Power_ at @Sandownpark pic.twitter.com/l8D8Mnielc
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 7, 2019

Trainer Trends

4 of the last 7 winners have been delivered by Willie Mullins, including the 2019 victor Klassical Dream. Overall, Willie Mullins has won the Supreme 6 times. He knows what it takes to win the race clearly!
Nicky Henderson is another trainer to note with 1 winner in the last 10 years and his usually perform admirably in this race, albeit mostly without actually winning. However, 9 of his 19 runners finished in the first 3 over the last 10 years and generally go well in the contest.
Gordon Elliott's runners are maybe worth nothing in this contest also with a winner and 2 places from only 6 runners in the last 10 years.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has never quite mastered the Supreme with no winners or no places from 9 runners in the race.

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Jockey Trends

Ruby Walsh rode 5 winners in the last 10 years, so like in every race he was clearly worth checking out before his retirement. 4 of these winners were for Willie Mullins, so with Paul Townend taking over that position, he looks the man to follow.
Jack Kennedy has a fine record in the race with a winner and 2 places from 3 starts in the race. Nico de Boinville is similar with 1 winner and 2 places from 4 rides.
This is one of the rare races where Davy Russell has a poor record, with only 1 place from 10 starts. Barry Geraghty is similar with only 1 place from 12 efforts.

How did the trends do last year?

Klassical Dream was a strong winner for the trends in 2019. He was the right age, right rating, has won a Grade One and had won on a left handed track. He hit basically all of the trends going into the festival.

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He came here without a massive reputation.

He may have one now.

Klassical Dream, easy to spot in the bright red silks, is a very taking winner of the Supreme#TheFestival #CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/uRko9DQSQp
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 12, 2019

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2020?

At the moment Fiddlerontheroof and Abacadbras are fighting for favourtism in the market and its easy to see why. Both have won Grade One races, both have won going left handed and both are the right ages for the race. Perhaps Gordon Elliott's better Supreme record than Colin Tizzard (6 runners, no win or place) would lead punters to Abacadbras?

Asterion Forlonge has come out of the trends well also and is one to note.