Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2022 Trends

As with the majority of races at the Cheltenham Festival, there are some very strong trends that can help punters to find the winner. Our horse racing experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have taken a look at the most important pointers from the last 10 years which will help you find the best horse to follow in the 2022 renewal of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

| By: Jessica Lamb
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2022 Trends
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2022 Trends

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2022 Trends

Need some help finding the winner of the 2022 edition of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of the Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser.

The last 10 winners:

  • Rated 142 or better.
  • Not a maiden over hurdles.
  • Five or less novice hurdle runs.
  • Between 2 and 5 runs this season.
  • Took part in a novice hurdle last time, not a handicap.
  • Last run within 80 days of the Supreme.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

  • 5 or 6 years old.
  • Winner of at least two hurdle races
  • Victorious on a left-handed track.
  • Won last outing (exception Labaik 2017).

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Key Trials from the last 10 years

  • The Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, known previously as the Deloitte Novice Hurdle, has always been regarded as one of the most important pointers to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle because it clarifies the pecking order among the top Irish novices.
  • The Grade 1 contest, which takes place at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in early February, has been the springboard to Cheltenham Festival success for the likes of Appreciate It (2021), Klassical Dream (2019), Vautour (2014) and Champagne Fever (2013) in recent years.
  • The Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle has traditionally been a reasonable trial with one winner (Douvan, 2015) and three places from the last 10 years.
  • The Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown has been disappointing in respect to the Cheltenham Festival, with only one winner graduating to Supreme Novice Hurdle glory in the last 10 years - Appreciate It in 2021. The 2019 winner Abacadabras came very close too when narrowly denied by Shishkin. The 2021 winner was Mighty Potter for trainer Gordon Elliott.
  • The only Grade 1 race over 2m for novices run in Britain before Cheltenham is the Tolworth Hurdle but it has only thrown up one winner of the Supreme in the last 10 years - Summerville Boy in 2015. 2021 Tolworth winner Metier proved most disappointing in the Supreme, trailing in 7th of eight runners.
  • The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle have had plenty of places between them in the Supreme, but neither have thrown up the winner. Both take place in February/March.

Trainer Trends

  • Five of the last 10 winners have been trained by Willie Mullins, most recently with 2021 victor Appreciate It. Mullins has won the Supreme seven times, more than any other trainer.
  • Nicky Henderson is another trainer to note with two winners in the last 10 years and his representatives usually perform admirably. Half of his runners (9 of 18) have finished in the first three in the last 10 years, a stat bolstered by both Shishkin (1st) and Chantry House (3rd) in 2020.
  • Gordon Elliott's runners are maybe worth nothing in this contest also with a winner (Labaik) and three places from only seven runners in the last 10 years.
  • Nigel Twiston-Davies has never quite mastered the Supreme with no winners or places from nine runners in the race.

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Jockey Trends

  • All of Willie Mullins’ winners in the last 10 years have been ridden by his number one stable jockey (Ruby Walsh up until 2019) so pay close attention to the chosen mount of current number one, Paul Townend.
  • Nico de Boinville has the best recent record in the race with two wins, both on Nicky Henderson-trained horses, in the last six years.
  • Jack Kennedy also has a good recent record in the race with a winner and three places from four rides.
  • This is one of the rare races where Davy Russell has a relatively poor record, although he almost broke his duck in 2020 on Abacadabras. That was just his second Supreme placing in the last 10 years.

How did the trends do last year?

Appreciate It looked irresistible when storming nine lengths clear in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle and went straight to the top of the ante-post markets, holding his position until race day when he was sent off the 8/11 favourite. Trained by Willie Mullins, who has such an enviable record in the Supreme, he was the highest-rated horse in the field at 153 and ticked all the boxes.

His only query was his age (7) as only one horse aged older than six had won the race this century (Captain Cee Bee in 2008). Appreciate It busted that trend to win by 24 lengths.

Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2022?

Of the quartet at the head of the betting, only Jonbon, a full-brother to 2015 winner Douvan, and Sir Gerhard have raced (and won) on a left-handed track.

The former is trained by Nicky Henderson, like fellow market-leader Constitution Hill, who is one of only three Grade 1 winners among the entries.

The other Grade 1 winners are both trained by Willie Mullins and headed by Sir Gerhard, who is also the 2021 Champion Bumper winner. He looks the best bet on trends at this stage.

Mullins' other Grade 1 winner in the event is Statuaire. He also has impressive Grade 2 winner Dysart Dynamo in the mix, though he hasn't raced or won left-handed.

2021 Supreme Novices' Hurdle Result

PositionNamePriceTrainerJockey
1stAppreciate It8/11fWillie MullinsPaul Townend
2ndBallyadam6/1Henry De BromheadJack Kennedy
3rdFor Pleasure40/1Alex HalesHarry Bannister

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All odds were correct when posted.