Triumph Hurdle 2021 Trends
Not all trends are equal at the Cheltenham Festival, so we've taken a look at the most important Triumph Hurdle trends from the last 10 years, and used them to find you the best horses to follow right now for the fascinating 2021 running.
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Need some help finding the winner of the 2021 edition of the JCB Triumph Hurdle? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookmakers.co.uk have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last ten renewals in order to help you find the winner of this speed test for the top juveniles.
2021 Triumph Hurdle Trends
The last 10 winners:
- Finished in the first four on their last run
- Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
- Last ran over hurdles, no more than 50 days ago
- Had run up to six times over hurdles
- Had won if they had run at Cheltenham before
Nine of the last 10 winners:
- Were bred in Ireland or France
- Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2
- Won last time out, or were beaten no more than three lengths
- Had run no more than three times since their last win
- Had won at least half of all their hurdle runs - seven were unbeaten
Key Trials in the last 10 years
- The Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown has produced five of the last eight winners (Farclas, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Tiger Roll, Our Conor & Countrywide Flame). It has also thrown out nine placed horses in 10 years.
- The Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow is another Grade 1 contest that attracts some of the best juveniles, like 2016 winner Defi Du Seuil. 2019 winner Allmankind was placed in the Triumph that year.
- The Grade 3 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham has produced two of the last seven winners (Defi Du Seuil & Peace And Co). It has also thrown out one placed finisher.
- Kempton’s Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle has been won by some brilliant juveniles but it has not produced a Triumph Hurdle winner since Zarkandar in 2011.
- 2020 winner Burning Victory won a Grade 3 juvenile event at Fairyhouse in February en route to the festival.
Trainer Trends
- Nicky Henderson boasts a massive 25% strike rate in the Grade 1, having saddled three winners and four placed horses from only 12 runners. In 2015 he had the 1-2-3!
- Philip Hobbs has won the race three times since the turn of the century, most recently with Defi Du Seuil in 2017.
- Gordon Elliott boasts a 22% strike rate in the Triumph Hurdle, having saddled two winners and two placed horses from just nine runners.
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Jockey Trends
- With five-time winner Barry Geraghty now retired, no current jockey has won the race more than once.
- Given the records of their stables in the race, it would be prudent to keep onside leading riders from the Henderson and Elliott stables.
How did the trends do last year?
Burning Victory was the first female winner of the Triumph Hurdle in the last ten years so she bucked a trend. That aside, she had a progressive profile on the Flat in France and was an impressive winner of a Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse just a month before the festival. Trends devotees may also have been put off by Willie Mullins’ poor recent record in the race (only previous success came in 2002).
Check out latest Cheltenham ante post odds.
Will GOSHEN prove a class above in the International Hurdle today?! 👀
— The Winners Enclosure (@TWEnclosure) December 12, 2020
He looked set for Grade 1 glory before unseating his rider at Cheltenham last season, though despite two flat defeats since he returns over hurdles with huge potential 🐎
🎬 @RacingTVpic.twitter.com/X6pFd6G8CR
Who Fits The Trends Best In 2021?
Gordon Elliott appears to hold a strong hand here with Zanahiyr and Quilixios, who are both unbeaten over hurdles. He ran out an impressive winner of a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and that race has a good record when it comes to throwing up smart horses (2019 winner Aspire Tower finished second in the Triumph Hurdle).
Quilixios heads to Cheltenham a Grade 1 winner after his five-and-a-half length demolition job in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, arguably the strongest trial for the Triumph Hurdle. Jack Kennedy has a tough decision to make if both of these horses go to the Triumph.
The home challenge is led by Adagio, winner of the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in January, a race won by 2016 Triumph winner Defi Du Seuil.
2020 Triumph Hurdle Result
| Position | Name | Price | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Burning Victory | 12/1 | W P Mullins | Paul Townend |
| 2nd | Aspire Tower | 5/1 | Henry De Bromhead | Rachael Blackmore |
| 3rd | Allmankind | 7/2 | Dan Skelton | Harry Skelton |
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