TODAY'S BETTING TIPS:
|Shamameya - 1.10 Lingfield||9/4||Bet Regal|
|It’s Probably Me - 1.35 Warwick||11/10||Bet365|
|So Satisfied - 1.55 Catterick||13/2||BetVictor|
|Minella Trump - 3.00 Catterick||10/11||Grosvenor Sport|
|Sweet Flora - 4.05 Catterick||6/1||MansionBet|
Tip 1 - Shamameya - 1.10 Lingfield
Shamameya had not raced for nearly 14 months before going down by a neck at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. She was weak in the betting, but should have won really.
Coming from well off the pace, she made rapid headway and then was hampered 2f out. Jamie Spencer takes over today and she also drops in class from a 0-80 handicap into a 0-70.
As she's already a half-sister to a Group 3 winner and a Listed winner, it seems significant that she's been kept in training and not just reitred for breeding. She's obviously bred to be smart and must have winning in her to have been brought back from 417 days off.
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Tip 2 - It’s Probably Me - 1.35 Warwick
It's Probably Me is 0/2 over hurdles, but still has by far and away the best form in this 2m5f mares' novices' hurdle. Last time out, in Listed company at Taunton, she ran a massive race to be third to impressive winner Marie’s Rock.
In second was Midnights Gift, rated 124, but carrying 8lbs less than It's Probably Me. In fourth and fifth, behind our tip, were Queens Cave and Deja Vue, rated 127 and 135. That form is rock solid - Queens Cave and Deja Vue have won three hurdles between them and Midnights Gift is already a Listed winner.
It's Probably Me's biggest danger is the Dan Skelton-trained Molly Olly Wishes, but shes already 0/4 over hurdles and only rated 116.
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Tip 3 - So Satisfied - 1.55 Catterick
So Satisfied won this 3m1f handicap chase in 2018 when rated 99, and won a similar event at Musselburgh off the same mark last February. He pulled up on his last two runs, but has now had a wind operation and been off the track since May.
He's won and been second after long breaks before and has the big benefit today of being back down to a rating of 99. His form over fences when rated in the 90s reads: 221U1. I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets his head in front again off this kind of mark.
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Tip 4 - Minella Trump - 3.00 Catterick
Minella Trump is unbeaten in one point-to-point and two hurdles and has a fantastic chance to make it 4/4 on today's handicap hurdle debut. He didn't come off the bridle when winning novice hurdles at Sedgefield by two and 11 lengths, the distant second from his last run since finishing fourth in a handicap
There’s only one other recent winner in this 0-130, with most of Minella Trump's rivals arriving in poor form. He's so progressive, he should win this, and he's only helped further by his rider, Champion jockey-elect Brian Hughes, who is riding out of his skin, with a double at Musselburgh last Friday, and at Ayr on Sunday, before a treble at Newcastle on Monday.
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Tip 5 - Sweet Flora - 4.05 Catterick
Some of Sweet Flora's form would give her no chance of winning this mares' handicap hurdle, but there is one run that really puts her in contention in such a weak race.
Having been well-beaten in four hurdles, last time out she finished nine and a half lengths fifth at 100/1 in a mares' novices', run over today's course and distance. The second, Killconney Bridge, won yesterday and the third, Royal Cosmic, won at Musselburgh on Sunday.
She was only two necks behind the third, now rated 109, and returns to handicap company rated just 90, which just looks massively lenient. She finished nearly 20 lengths ahead of 95-rated Milanavera, and further ahead of 88-rated Iconic Code.
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