Erling Haaland’s Summer Transfer Odds*
*Odds correct as of August 5th, 2021
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The transfer market does not reopen until June 9, but speculation around the future of Erling Haaland is already rife. Borussia Dortmund’s young sensation is the most in-demand footballer in the world right now, with a host of European clubs chasing his signature.
The original plan was for Dortmund to keep hold of the Norway international until 2022, when a £66m buyout clause in his contract is due to kick in. But Haaland has made stunning progress at Signal Iduna Park since moving to Germany from Red Bull Salzburg in January 2020, and Dortmund’s financial difficulties mean they may opt to cash in on him this summer. It is already clear that Haaland will not be short of suitors.
An incident on March 20 will not exactly have boosted Dortmund fans’ hopes of keeping hold of their prized asset for another year. The 20-year-old scored twice against Koln – his tally for the season stands at 33 goals in 31 appearances – but that was not enough for victory as BVB dropped two more points in the top-four race. Haaland removed his shirt at the final whistle, handed it to an opponent and walked straight down the tunnel.
Dortmund would almost certainly have to sell Haaland were they to miss out on the Champions League, with four points currently separating them from the final qualification spot. But where might he end up? We have looked at some of the contenders.
Manchester City are the 4/6 favourites to sign Haaland from Dortmund, according to Betfair. Pep Guardiola is expected to be in the market for a centre-forward this summer, with Sergio Aguero out of contract in June. Even if the Argentina international signs a one-year extension, his lack of game time this term suggests he will no longer be first choice at the Etihad Stadium.
City will be able to meet Dortmund’s asking price (whatever that may be) and Haaland himself might be attracted by the opportunity to represent a club his dad, Alfe-Inge, played for. Guardiola did not employ a traditional No.9 at Barcelona, but his subsequent use of Robert Lewandowski and Aguero suggests he does not have a problem with traditional centre-forwards. City is the most likely destination.
Fresh from a spending spree totalling more than £200m last summer, Chelsea are said to be interested in splashing more cash on Haaland. Timo Werner has endured a difficult debut campaign at Stamford Bridge, and has been deployed as an inside-forward of late. With doubt surrounding the futures of Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud, it is easy to see why Chelsea would want to bring a striker to the club.
However, odds of 3/1 look rather short. Chelsea have advanced beyond the last 16 of the Champions League just twice in the last nine seasons. Right now, they are not a European powerhouse like many of the clubs on this list, and they have yet to secure a top-four finish. All things considered, Chelsea will find it difficult to win the race for Haaland’s signature.
Manchester United’s greatest asset in this particular area is Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who coached Haaland during his time in charge of Molde. The Red Devils, available at 16/1 with Unibet, attempted to sign the striker from Salzburg last year, but Haaland ultimately reasoned that a spell at Dortmund would be better for his development.
Edinson Cavani has been linked with Boca Juniors and Anthony Martial has struggled as a No.9 at times this term, so United could be on the lookout for a centre-forward. However, Solskjaer’s side are still considered a work in progress, and Haaland might prefer to join a club capable of winning the biggest prizes from the off.
PSG pulled off arguably the most sensational transfer in football history when they signed Neymar in 2017, so a hotly-contested battle for Haaland would not faze them. Yet while no one doubts PSG’s ability to seal a deal of this magnitude, it remains to be seen whether they will even go in for the Norwegian.
PSG’s priorities this summer are tying Neymar and Kylian Mbappe down to new contracts. They have also spent much of the campaign trying to line up a deal for Lionel Messi. When it comes to Haaland, PSG – offered at 16/1 with Unibet – might just sit this one out.
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At 10/1 with Betfair, Real Madrid are an attractive option, particularly as they are the destination of choice for so many world-class footballers. Karim Benzema is enjoying an excellent season but he will turn 34 later this year, and los Blancos could do far worse than acquiring Haaland as his long-term successor.
Money is thought to be tight at the Santiago Bernabeu, but when Madrid want a player they tend to get him one way or another. For that reason, it could be worth a small wager on Haaland ending up in the Spanish capital.