Premier League Top Four Finish Odds

Will Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal be involved in a straight battle for two Champions League spots this season?

Premier League Top Four Finish Odds
Premier League Top Four Finish Odds
Premier League Top 4 Odds
Thursday 18th August 2022
BetVictor Bet365 Unibet William Hill Coral Ladbrokes Paddy Power
 
% Chance
Manchester City 98.04%
--
1/50 1.02
--
1/100 1.01 1/100 1.01
--
--
Liverpool FC 85.69%
--
4/25 1.17
--
1/10 1.11 2/17 1.12
--
--
Tottenham Hotspur 66.67%
--
1/2 1.50
--
1/2 1.50 1/2 1.50
--
--
Chelsea FC 65.36%
--
1/2 1.50
--
8/15 1.53 1/2 1.50
--
--
Arsenal FC 59.88%
--
4/6 1.67
--
4/6 1.67 4/6 1.67
--
--
Manchester United 12.50%
--
7/1 8.00
--
6/1 7.00 13/2 7.50
--
--
Newcastle United 10.00%
--
8/1 9.00
--
9/1 10.00 15/2 8.50
--
--
West Ham United 4.76%
--
16/1 17.00
--
16/1 17.00 20/1 21.00
--
--
Brighton & Hove Albion 4.35%
--
20/1 21.00
--
22/1 23.00 20/1 21.00
--
--
Aston Villa 3.45%
--
25/1 26.00
--
28/1 29.00 28/1 29.00
--
--
Leicester City 2.44%
--
40/1 41.00
--
40/1 41.00 33/1 34.00
--
--
Crystal Palace 1.49%
--
40/1 41.00
--
66/1 67.00 50/1 51.00
--
--
Brentford FC 1.49%
--
50/1 51.00
--
66/1 67.00 50/1 51.00
--
--
Leeds United 1.23%
--
66/1 67.00
--
50/1 51.00 80/1 81.00
--
--
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.23%
--
66/1 67.00
--
66/1 67.00 80/1 81.00
--
--
Southampton FC 0.99%
--
100/1 101.00
--
100/1 101.00 100/1 101.00
--
--
Everton FC 0.79%
--
100/1 101.00
--
100/1 101.00 125/1 126.00
--
--
Nottingham Forest 0.66%
--
100/1 101.00
--
150/1 151.00 80/1 81.00
--
--
Fulham FC 0.66%
--
100/1 101.00
--
150/1 151.00 80/1 81.00
--
--
AFC Bournemouth 0.50%
--
150/1 151.00
--
200/1 201.00 150/1 151.00
--
--
Team % Chance Best Odds
MCI
98.04%
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1/50 1.02 Bet365
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1/100 1.01 Coral
LFC
85.69%
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4/25 1.17 Bet365
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2/17 1.12 Coral
TOT
66.67%
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1/2 1.50 Bet365
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1/2 1.50 Coral
CFC
65.36%
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1/2 1.50 Bet365
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1/2 1.50 Coral
ARS
59.88%
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4/6 1.67 Coral
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4/6 1.67 Bet365
MUN
12.50%
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7/1 8.00 Bet365
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13/2 7.50 Coral
NEW
10.00%
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8/1 9.00 Bet365
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15/2 8.50 Coral
WHU
4.76%
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20/1 21.00 Coral
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16/1 17.00 Bet365
BHA
4.35%
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20/1 21.00 Bet365
AVL
3.45%
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28/1 29.00 Coral
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25/1 26.00 Bet365
LEI
2.44%
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40/1 41.00 Bet365
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33/1 34.00 Coral
CRY
1.49%
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50/1 51.00 Coral
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40/1 41.00 Bet365
BRE
1.49%
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50/1 51.00 Coral
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50/1 51.00 Bet365
LEE
1.23%
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80/1 81.00 Coral
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66/1 67.00 Bet365
WOL
1.23%
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80/1 81.00 Coral
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66/1 67.00 Bet365
SOU
0.99%
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100/1 101.00 Coral
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100/1 101.00 Bet365
EVE
0.79%
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125/1 126.00 Coral
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100/1 101.00 Bet365
NOF
0.66%
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100/1 101.00 Bet365
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80/1 81.00 Coral
FUL
0.66%
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100/1 101.00 Bet365
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80/1 81.00 Coral
BRN
0.50%
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150/1 151.00 Coral
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150/1 151.00 Bet365
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It's already starting to look like five Premier League teams are competing for four spots this season. Manchester City have clicked into gear and are virtual certainties to qualify for the Champions League in customary fashion, while the bookies are also expecting Liverpool to be in that top quartet of places although they've failed to win either of their opening two matches.

We've also got a potentially interesting tussle between three London teams, with two of them duking it out at Stamford Bridge on Sunday where Chelsea and Tottenham played out a 2-2 draw. The Blues were the better team in that encounter, although the sides claiming a point each was potentially a boost for Arsenal down the road.

The Gunners have claimed back-to-back wins, and the bookmakers are taking their top-four assault seriously this season, with Manchester United's top-four odds already drifting badly following consecutive defeats against Brighton and Brentford to open the season.

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City and Liverpool Look Nailed on to Feature in Top 4

Manchester City and Liverpool finished with 93 and 92 points, respectively, at the end of the 2021-22 season. With Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp remaining at the helm and the squads staying largely the same, it's likely these two clubs will be battling it out for the title once again.

It's almost inconceivable the Cityzens or Reds will be dropping out of the top four considering there was a 23-point gap between Liverpool and fifth-placed Arsenal last term. Even allowing for the fact the sides might post lower points totals doesn't mean they should be unduly troubled given the squad sizes and the quality within their respective ranks.

City opened the season with a convincing 2-0 win at the London Stadium thanks to an Erling Haaland double, with this being followed by a 4-0 victory against Bournemouth. Liverpool were more shaky when drawing 2-2 at Craven Cottage and they head to Old Trafford still without a win after a 1-1 draw at home to Crystal Palace. However, the bookies aren't prepared to start laying them just yet.


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Can Chelsea Remain Among the Champions League Spots?

Chelsea have an implied probability of well above 50% on securing a Premier League top-four finish this season. While the Blues only drew 2-2 with Tottenham on Sunday, Thomas Tuchel's team were comfortably the better team, especially in the first half where the west London side were utterly dominant.

Kalidou Koulibaly opened the scoring for the home team on Sunday, and the former Napoli defender shone along with Marc Cucurella in the back five, while Reece James produced an outstanding performance and Raheem Sterling was bright in attack. This team seem like an upgrade on last season, and it's not unrealistic that they could actually challenge for the title.

On the flip side, Chelsea were slightly fortunate to come away with a 1-0 win away to Everton, and they are still without a recognised centre forward, which could be an issue when trying to finish above the north London teams who have more recognised strikers operating for them.

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Tottenham Also Big Odds-On After Four Points on the Board

The biggest market movers with the Premier League betting sites has been Tottenham Hotspur on the Top Four market. Spurs claimed a 4-1 win over Southampton before a 2-2 draw at Chelsea, and that represents a solid start for Antonio Conte's side.

The squad were good enough to land a top-four spot last season, and they have been further strengthened by the arrivals of Ivan Perisic, Yves Bissouma and Richarlison, with the trio able to help make an impact at Stamford Bridge. Six goals scored in the opening two matches will be highly encouraging for Conte, who has not yet seen Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane truly start to fire.

Tottenham were admittedly poor for parts of the clash at Chelsea and simply had to stay in the game at various stages. They actually switched formation and moved to a flat back four when it wasn't working, and the improvement being shown at Arsenal means they are far from certainties to secure a top-four finish.

Arsenal Shining Brightly After Two Early Wins

Arsenal finished just two points behind rivals Tottenham last season, and they certainly look capable of challenging for Champions League qualification based on early evidence. The Gunners were defensively compact when claiming a 2-0 win at Selhurst Park, and this was followed by an entertaining 4-2 victory over Leicester City, with Gabriel Jesus bagging a brace for the north London side.

Mikel Arteta is certainly happy with the way his team have hit the ground running, with the bookies having shortened their betting odds on Arsenal finishing in the top four, and it's easy to see them challenging hard for a Champions League berth.

Perhaps we need to see more evidence that Arsenal can sustain this form and much will come down to their performances against Tottenham and Chelsea, while it will also be interesting to see how they fare against Manchester City and Liverpool. However, some firms are now odds-on about the Gunners finishing in the top four.


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Manchester United Drifting on Premier League Top-Four Market

It's slightly farcical to be considering Manchester United as top-four contenders as things stand. After all, the Red Devils are propping up all the other teams in the Premier League, with Erik ten Hag watching his team lose 2-1 at home to Brighton before a shambolic performance at the Brentford Community Stadium that saw the team battered 4-0.

Ten Hag called his team in for extra training on Sunday following that abject performance. With Cristiano Ronaldo clearly unhappy at the club, United look a long distance away from challenging for a top-four spot this season. They already trail Arsenal by six points, and a couple more defeats could see them already have too much ground to cover on the leading teams.

An upcoming clash against Liverpool sees the Red Devils as big betting outsiders to win the game, although the bookmakers still anticipate that things could click into gear at Old Trafford, and you won't find huge betting odds that they somehow scramble a top-four spot this term.

Newcastle United Considered In The Top-Four Betting

Newcastle were trading at odds-on for Premier League relegation at various stages of last season. However, a big-money takeover and the appointment of Eddie Howe as manager, saw the Magpies quickly turn a corner. The Tyneside outfit ended up finishing well clear of danger and they have now started the 2022-23 season with four points from their first two matches played.

We saw two different types of performance against Forest and Brighton. Eddie Howe's side were comfortable winners against the former, bagging two goals without reply against a newly-promoted outfit, with Callum Wilson opening his account and the rearguard keeping a clean sheet.

At the AMEX Stadium, it was a stern rearguard action that was required and some smart keeping from Nick Pope to keep Brighton at bay. Perhaps this result and performance laid bare the fact that the Tyneside club aren't quite there for finishing in the Champions League spots.

West Ham and Brighton Next in Top-Four Betting

West Ham have been knocking on the door of the Premier League top four in the past few seasons. David Moyes has done an excellent job at the London Stadium and we probably shouldn't read too much into their 2-0 defeat against Manchester City, although a 1-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest was a big setback for the London side.

Brighton look a more viable top-four dark horse right now after claiming a 2-1 win at Old Trafford and then following it up with a goalless draw against Newcastle where the Seagulls outplayed their opponents for large parts of the game. Graham Potter's side still remain short of firepower, although the way in which Pascal Gross and Leandro Trossard are performing will be hugely encouraging.

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